Russia controls 89% of the Great Novosilka. That hide the “fanfars” of Moscow and as further actions of the invaders will indicate the priorities of the Russian Federation in 2025 – parsing ISW

This is stated in the new report by the Institute of War Study.

Against the backdrop of Russia’s official statements that the Occupation forces have captured the Greater Novosilka, Isw states so far only the further advance of the Russians in the village. Frames with confirmed geolocation, published on January 26, show that Russian troops advanced along the street of Central in the northern part of the Greater Novosilka, moving further north. ISW experts point out that their geolocid evidence suggests that Russian troops occupy 89% of the Great Novosilka. The ISW also reminds that on January 26, a spokesman of Khortytsia Victor Tregubov denied the statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation that the Russian troops had seized all the great Novosilka, saying that Ukrainian troops were keeping positions in the settlement. In addition, the 110th separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces, which operates in the Greater Novosilka, also stated that fighting within the village continued and that the Russian forces did not threaten the surrounding units of the brigade.

Infographics: ISW

ISW analysts add that they did not observe independent evidence of the surroundings by Russian troops of Ukrainian forces in the Greater Novosilka. The Ukrainian 110th Brigade also reported that “the use of equipment was nullified”, both by the Defense Forces of Ukraine and the hostile side. “Everything that came closer to a kilometer to the collision line was destroyed,” the brigade said. They also clarified that Ukrainian and occupation troops have in artillery and use of FPV and occupation troops “Approximate parity ”, however, the number of infantry has a huge advantage. However, the Mokry River Yalah now has become a obstacle to the advance of the Russians, noted in the 110th Brigade.

ISW emphasizes that statements The Ministry of Defense of Russia on capture Large Nouns are accompanied ”an abnormally high amount of fanfar ‘with the side of the Russian Federation – which is probably part of Moscow’s information efforts, aimed at how the event perceives the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and how it can influence the reduction of Ukraine’s international support. In particular, during January 26, the Russian Defense Ministry published frames allegedly the task of thermobaric artillery blows in the Ukrainian forces in the Greater Novosilka, the frames of establishing Russian flags in several areas of the village, and also declared about “Stripping »Ukrainian positions.

Until recently, the Ministry of Defense of Russia did not announce the stated capture of settlements in Ukraine “with such a pump and as fast as it happened on January 26″, it emphasized in ISW. In this way, analysts suggest “Russia is likely to take advantage of the stated admiration of the Great Novosilka to influence the Western perception of the situation on the battlefield in the Donetsk region and to spread narratives that Russia’s victories on the battlefield are inevitable and Ukrainian positions are fast deteriorate. ”

In fact, Russian “successes” in the western part of the Donetsk region continue to be gradual and are achieved much lower than those that could be expected in the modern mechanized war, Experts of the Institute of War Study emphasize. In addition, it remains unclear whether Russian troops will quickly move beyond the Great Noun. Currently, it is unclear what combat power is still stored by units of the Eastern Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation after several months of continuous offensive actions.

The Greater Novosilka is located near several rivers, which will probably complicate the further tactical advancement of the Russians in the area and interfere with it. In isw add that still rivers forcing “Historically, it was problematic for Russian troops. Therefore, it can complicate the use of even a captured large newcomers for significant further operational progress of Russian troops in the western part of Donetsk region, suggesting in ISW.

At the same time, the ISW emphasizes that the capture of the Great Novosilka is likely to give the Russian Federation command to decide on the redeployment of units of the Eastern Military District (Its) Russia from the area of ​​this settlement to other priority operational areas. So Any release of units from the area of ​​the Greater Novosilka in the coming weeks will indicate which districts will be priority for the offensive actions of the Russian Federation in the spring and summer of 2025. The units of the Russian Eastern Military District have still been the main battle force in the carbon and Greater Nonovosil directions at least from the beginning of 2023, reminiscent of ISW. Initially, they opposed the Ukrainian counter -offensive in the summer of 2023, and subsequently strengthened their own offensive operations in the area in the fall of 2024. The units participated in the capture of the coal in the fall of 2024 and over the next three months used the capture of the city to develop the offensive north in the direction of Kurakhovoy and To the west in the direction of the Great Novosilka and to it.

So, after capturing the Great Novosilka RF Military Command may be faces to choose from several decisionspredicted in ISW:

• The Great Novosilka is protected from hypothetical counter -offensive by the Mokry Yala River. Therefore, the Russian military command can decide to leave the subdivisions in the west of Donetsk region and Continue promotion to the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regionswhich runs north and west of the Great Novosilka. This solution will testify to that the Russians prefer as soon as possible to promote this administrative border over other directions of promotion in the Donbass or in other frontier areas.
• The Russian Federation could leave some units in the area of ​​the Great Novosilka to continue limited attacks and block Ukrainian forces in the area, but to relocate the major part of the forces of the Eastern Military District to another area of ​​the front. Currently, Russian troops are activating offensive actions in Kupyansk, Borovy, Toretsky, Pokrovsky and near the Temporal Yar. The invaders also continue to work to eliminate the remnants of Ukrainian speeches in the Kurakhiv direction and Kursk region. Representatives of Ukraine have also recently stated that Russian troops could restore offensive operations in the Zaporozhye region in 2025. Therefore, the Russian Federation could relocate its strength to any of these areas, which would become an indicator of the priorities of the Russians in the spring and summer of 2025.
• Russian troops are also preparing to capture Toretsk “In the coming days, “so the redeployment of the elements of its to strengthen the group of the Russian Federation in the Toretsky direction will indicate the new priority efforts of Russia to restore attacks in the direction of Konstantinovka. Earlier, it estimated that Russian troops are likely to use the capture of Toretsk to move further west and along the T-05-16 route toretsk-Konstantinovka to the extreme southern southern point [Костянтинівка, Дружківка, Краматорськ, Слов’янськ]. Russian advancements in the direction of Toretsk were still slow because the fighting was in urban development. However, the occupiers can start to move relatively faster when they escape from Toretsk to the open field west of the city. Russian troops can also try to use tactical advantages within both Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian performance southwest of Toretsk. The Russians may also seek to eliminate the Ukrainian performance southwest from Toretsk to strengthen their southern flank before the offensive on Konstantinovka. Thus, the command of the Russian Federation can relocate units of the Eastern Military District to strengthen the offensive actions in the Toretsky direction, if it plans in the spring and summer of 2025 to attack the belt of Ukrainian fortresses of Donetsk region.
• Pokrovskaya was still the main operational purpose of the Russian military command in Donetsk region since February 2024. Therefore, the release of units from the Great Novosilka to the Toretsk or Temporal Yar – as opposed to the option of keeping these forces in the west of Donetsk region – or their relocation to the Zaporozhye direction or Pokrovsky directions will mean changing the operational priorities of Russia, summarize in ISW.