“The European Commission does not record the signs of the onset of “strong peace” in Ukraine, but the basic scenario provides for the gradual return of refugees from this year. EC estimates, in the early 2025, there were about 4.3 million Ukrainians with temporary protection status in the EU countries. It is predicted that this amount will remain stable throughout the year, and by the end of 2025 will be reduced to 4.1 million and”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
The European Commission does not record the signs of the onset of “strong peace” in Ukraine, but the basic scenario provides for the gradual return of refugees from this year.
EC estimates, in the early 2025, there were about 4.3 million Ukrainians with temporary protection status in the EU countries.
It is projected that this amount will remain stable throughout the year, and by the end of 2025 it will decrease to 4.1 million, and by the end of 2026-to 3.8 million people. This indicates that some Ukrainians will start returning home, although the process will be slow and stretched in time.
The National Bank of Ukraine confirms that in 2024 the outflow of migrants lasted – about 500 thousand citizens left the country. In 2025, another 200,000 Ukrainians will go abroad.
Mass return is expected no earlier than 2026, when, according to the NBU estimates, about 200 thousand people can return. In 2027, this process will accelerate and about 500,000 Ukrainians will return home.
However, experts emphasize that the conditions for the return will be the end of the war, the economic situation in Ukraine and the policies of refugees.
Much of the Ukrainians have adapted to life abroad, and some of them do not plan to return.
According to polls, 25% of refugees declare their intention to stay abroad, another 25% will return, and half have not yet decided on their plans.
Demographers and economists agree that rapid return is possible only if real peace, security guarantees and economics.
If the war is delayed or ended without guarantees, most Ukrainians will remain abroad and the return will last for years.
In this case, no more than 30-50% of refugees will return to Ukraine, mainly pensioners and unemployed.
Recall that European countries are interested in ensuring that Ukrainian refugees remain with them. This is primarily concerned with the countries that are most mature in migration policy.
We have also reported that millions of Ukrainian refugees in the EU may be at risk of losing their legal status, since there is no clear plan that would allow them to stay after ceasefire with Russia.
