“In recent months, a kind of diplomatic calm prevailed around the situation in Ukraine. The hostilities were conducted in the old regime, and Russia increased the number of strikes on peaceful Ukrainian cities, mainly targeting infrastructural and logistical facilities. But for several days now, diplomacy around the Ukrainian track has come into active motion again. US President Donald Trump returned to active participation in”, — write on: ua.news
In recent months, a kind of diplomatic calm prevailed around the situation in Ukraine. The hostilities were conducted in the old regime, and Russia increased the number of strikes on peaceful Ukrainian cities, mainly targeting infrastructural and logistical facilities. But for several days now, diplomacy around the Ukrainian track has come into active motion again.
US President Donald Trump has returned to active participation in the effort to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. On Thursday, October 16, he spoke for a long time on the phone with Russian dictator Volodymyr Putin, and on Friday, October 17, he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The leader of Ukraine flew to Washington, expecting specific actions from Trump in the context of support: Tomahawk missiles strengthening of sanctions, etc. But, judging by many media publications, the conversation did not go as well as expected, and the parties remained mutually dissatisfied with each other.
What did Zelensky and Trump ultimately come to, what to expect next and has Ukraine become closer to the dream peace? UA.News political columnist Nikita Trachuk discussed the issue together with experts.
“Echoes of Budapest”: the conversation between Trump and Putin
The leaders of Russia and America had a phone conversation exactly a day before Trump’s meeting with Zelensky. Some experts and mass media in Ukraine and abroad were surprised by this and expressed dissatisfaction. But in fact, there is nothing surprising here.
Since the main declared topic of the negotiations was the Tomahawk missiles, it is obvious that the American and Russian presidents should have discussed it among themselves first. The war in Ukraine is developing in the logic of controlled escalation: Kyiv’s partners are still afraid of Moscow, and therefore try to prevent it from reacting too sharply, including a potential nuclear response. There are unwritten balances between the parties that sometimes require direct discussion.
The key news from the conversation between Trump and Putin was the planned meeting in a few weeks in Budapest, the capital of Hungary, where the infamous Budapest Memorandum with guarantees of Ukrainian security. They did not work either in 2014 or in 2022.
And it is in this location that Trump and Putin are planning to meet. The event will be organized by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a consistent critic of Ukraine, who called for immediate peace throughout the years of the war. In addition, Orbán maintains good relations with Putin.
The choice of place is not random and solves several tasks at once. Among them is a kind of political “pass” from Trump to Orbán, who is his longtime supporter, as well as a “slap” to the liberal elites of Europe, for whom Orbán’s Hungary is a constant problem.
After all, the location chosen for the meeting of the presidents looks like an open mockery of Ukraine. Deciding the fate of the country in a city where a document was once signed with security guarantees that have already failed twice is a bitter mockery of history.
Meeting between Trump and Zelensky
Against the background of all the above, the Ukrainian president arrived in Washington. This visit had two key objectives. The minimum task is to receive “Tomahawks” . The maximum task is to sway Trump to the side of Ukraine, to “tie” him to the war as strongly as possible, turning him from an arbitrator into an ally actively involved in the process.
Did it work? Rather, no. The visit did not go as planned, and it was very noticeable from the comments that followed.
It is worth paying attention to Zelensky’s briefing, which he gave after the negotiations with Trump. The President of Ukraine was very composed, his facial expressions showed tension. He spoke very carefully, choosing his words. This means that the conversation was not particularly pleasant, but rather tough and pragmatic. As a result, the topic of Tomahawk missiles was postponed indefinitely, and the topic of anti-Russian sanctions and everything else was not considered in principle.
The main result of this event: Trump advocated an immediate end to the war on the front line. He proposed to stop, record the losses, and then let each side announce its victory – and then, they say, it will be seen.
“They… should stop where they are. Let both claim victory, let history decide.” Trump said.
In fact, Trump repeated the thesis that some Ukrainian experts have been expressing for a long time. Its essence is that Ukraine has already won – by surviving and not collapsing, because this was exactly the goal of the aggressor. Therefore, you need to announce your victory and try to end the active phase of hostilities as soon as possible.
Trump is now proposing the same thing. Zelensky also agrees with this, clarifying only that it is necessary to achieve a ceasefire first, and only then enter into some kind of dialogue.
But where is Putin and the position of the Russian Federation in this scheme? The Russian dictator demanded and demands that four oblasts be given to him and recognize the annexation of Crimea. On Alaska according to various rumors, he allegedly agreed to the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces from two, not four regions: Luhansk and Donetsk. But Ukraine was and remains resolutely against any territorial concessions.
Has Kyiv changed its position? It is doubtful, and judging by Zelensky’s subsequent speeches, no. Has Putin changed his position? Probably not either. At least no one is talking about it. But the meeting in Budapest is already being prepared, so at least something should happen there.
After all, it will be quite surprising if Putin succeeds in Hungary “other Alaska” . Namely: he will give Trump and Orban a pseudo-historical lecture about Rurik, Volodymyr the Baptist, Yaroslav the Wise, Kyivan Rus and the struggle of the Pechenegs with the Polovtsy, after which he will fly back to Moscow, making everyone look stupid again. Although, knowing Putin, one cannot rule out such a scenario.
Has peace become closer in Ukraine?
As a result of these two days full of diplomacy, Ukraine is in a situation of strategic uncertainty. Has Kyiv really become closer to peace? According to Trump and judging by the plans for the meeting in Hungary, he became. But did it become reality? No one is sure about that, except, again, Donald Trump. What will the parties come to in Budapest, if the meeting takes place at all? Nobody knows.
Perhaps there are already secret agreements that will be implemented after the Hungarian summit. It is also possible that all this is just “dust in the eyes” of Putin, who is biding his time mocking the American president. The second option looks more likely than the first. Although he leaves and a small chance for a miracle and a breakthrough in a peaceful settlement.
Finally, in the near future it is definitely worth expecting an increase in hostilities and an increase in the risks of provocations. After all, if the war can theoretically end along the line of battle, then what the enemy will do is obvious: he will try to seize as much territory as possible by this point.
As a result, Ukraine is once again at a crossroads. There are only two ways out of it: either peace, which is unlikely, or another large-scale escalation. Which option is more similar to the truth is a rhetorical question.
Expert opinion
According to the political scientist, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics Ruslan Bortnik this meeting clearly brings the situation closer to a resolution. Moreover, the outcome can be both in the form of a peaceful settlement and in the format of the maximum escalation of hostilities, already without any negotiations and without hope for peace.
“But the solution is coming. Trump, as promised, after success in settling the situation between Israel and Gaza, is concentrating on ending the Ukrainian-Russian war. And within the framework of this goal, he puts pressure on Russia and Ukraine. Three weeks ago he pressured Moscow, saying that the situation was bad, that the economy was collapsing, that the war was hopeless, and that the situation was bad for Russia. After that, he threatened to supply Tomahawk missiles. “Tomahawks” worked as a political weapon. Putin had to initiate the call, call Trump, offer some compromises. After that, Trump increased the pressure on Ukraine. Now he demands concessions from Zelenskyi, demands to abandon maximalist goals. This “pendulum strategy” continues.
A few weeks before the meeting in Budapest, any decisions on sanctions against Moscow and its economic allies were canceled. Also, let’s hope, massive Russian strikes on the Ukrainian energy system will be postponed for this period. Intensive technical consultations are going on behind the scenes… And then everything will depend on the meeting in Budapest. The solution is getting closer. Because if this round of negotiations ends in failure, we will expect a military escalation to some concrete and unambiguous result, so that no one will be able to argue with who wins and who loses in this war.” Ruslan Bortnik summarized.