“Discussion of the probable inclusion of the point of recognition of the annexation of Crimea by Russia in the conditional peace plan of the Donald Trump administration to settle the war in Ukraine has become an information bomb. According to a number of US media, although Ukraine is not directly proposed to recognize the loss of the peninsula, the United States can do it on its own, and Kiev will be offered to “take this attention”. At first glance, it is a diplomatic”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Discussion of the probable inclusion of the point of recognition of the annexation of Crimea by Russia in the conditional peace plan of the Donald Trump administration to settle the war in Ukraine has become an information bomb. According to a number of US media, although Ukraine is not directly proposed to recognize the loss of the peninsula, the United States can do it on its own, and Kiev will be offered to “take this attention”.
At first glance, it is a diplomatic move aimed at achieving compromise and ending the war. But this “pragmatic” formula hides an extremely dangerous precedent, which can radically change the world order, moreover, not in favor of the right, but in favor of strength.
This scenario will not only bring the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but on the contrary-will become a catalyst for new conflicts, the destruction of the foundations of international law, the deployment of a policy of revenge around the world and the final undergoing confidence in Western security guarantees. And that is why it cannot be allowed.
Crimea is a symbol of the destruction of the postwar order
The annexation of Crimea in 2014 is not just a seizure of the territory. It is a blow to the heart of the international order, which began to form after 1945, when the world after the Second World War agreed to change the borders no longer by force. The new UN Statute, the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, numerous international treaties and institutions that guaranteed the territorial integrity of the states and forbidden military aggression as a foreign policy tool, were based on the new security architecture.
Russia, having introduced troops into the Crimea, organizing a pseudo -referendum under the control of armed forces and formally incorporating the peninsula in its composition, violated all these principles. Having reacted to this, the international community condemned the Kremlin’s actions, and the UN General Assembly confirmed that Crimea remains part of Ukraine.
This position has become the foundation for sanctions, diplomatic pressure and support of Ukraine by Western partners. However, the recognition of Crimea by Russia by the United States would have a cross on this policy. This would mean that international law is no longer binding on, and force is the only criterion for legitimacy. And that you can simply wait for the historical time-10-12 years-and your conquest recognizes the world.
Domino Effect: New Wars and New Anexations
The world in which borders can be changed through war is a world that goes to chaos in all pairs. If the United States, as the main guarantor of a democratic order on the planet, is recognized as a force capture of the territory, this step will open the Pandora box.
A new precedent will appear – if Russia managed to annex part of another state and in 11 years to achieve its recognition, why not repeat it to others? And in the end, the United States has not received all its territories peacefully. And what if Hawaii decides to become independent again or will Mexico return its historical lands of Texas, Arizona and Nevada?
China can activate attempts to subjugate Taiwan. Serbia is to view Kosovo status, which, incidentally, was the first to recognize the Americans. Ukraine, by the way, has not yet recognized Kosovo.
Turkey can call into question the status of Northern Cyprus. Israel is to finally seize all the historical territories of Palestine. And what will happen in Africa, Latin America? All autocratic modes will be a signal: the main thing is to have a powerful army, endurance and willingness to completely ignore international law. And the result will definitely come.
History knows the following examples: “Peace” with Hitler in 1938, when Sudeten was given to illusory stability. But what does humanity know about the “Munich plot”? What has led to the world catastrophe. This step then only pushed the Fuhrer to new conquests. Similarly, the recognition of Crimea will encourage Putin and will start the new era of aggressive auditism.
Risks for Ukraine and the Western Coalition
For Ukraine, such a step will be a total geopolitical catastrophe. He will question the whole meaning of resistance, loss of hundreds of thousands of lives, faith in supporting allies, in Western values, etc.
It will be a political surrender without formal signature. And not the surrender of Ukraine before Russia, no. It will be the capitulation of peace and justice to Realpolitik’s Cynism, the surrender of all international law before the ambitions of a single little person who was headed by Russia in 2000. Is the world ready for it? The question is debatable.
Ukrainian society, which is united around the idea of justice, will be shocked – and so it means to say nothing. This will cause the crisis of legitimacy of power decisions, weaken the motivation of the army, create a new vector of political destabilization. At the same time, Russia will receive reinforcement: internal – in the form of strengthening Putin’s positions, and external – in the form of a sense of correctness and moral superiority over the whole world, which agrees with the gross right of force.
The Western Coalition is also affected. The EU, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and other partners of Ukraine who have supported Kiev for years will be facing the fact: the main ally – the United States – changed the course. It will hit the unity of sanction policy, separate the event, make many countries start playing realistic balancing games between Russia and the US.
The expert’s opinion
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik He believes that the response to the statements of President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky about the legal non -recognition of the occupation of Crimea does not solve the problem. In general, Crimea cannot be recognized as part of Russia.
“If the US recognizes Crimea in Russian, it will open the” box of Pandora “, like the situation with Yugoslavia, when some parts of the country were recognized as legitimate, and other states began to actively recognize them. For example, Kosovo recognized 107 states from more than 190 UN members. The same story can be repeated with Crimea. This is an extremely dangerous process. Unfortunately, the Memorandum that the US is not recognized as Russian, can be put in the same place where the Budapest Memorandum is in the category of documents that do not matter at a critical moment. This is the question of what value such Memorandums have that we like to sign … Instead of entering into interstate agreements that are subject to ratification by parliament, we are engaged in signing formal documents without obligations. Filkin Certificate. If the US recognizes Crimea Russian Other countries will follow their example. Moreover, this will abolish all Crimean sanctions by the United States as they will lose their legitimacy. This will open the opportunity to other countries – Chinese, Turks and others – to start invest in Crimea under Russian jurisdiction. It will be a completely different reality … And so we should consider this option from the Russian Federation. It is the fault of the aggressor and the result of populism of our elites, ”Ruslan Bortnik is sure.
Will the war end after the occupation of Crimea is recognized?
The argument that the recognition of Crimea will help end the war is totally false. Russia does not fight for Crimea – it fights for the return of Ukraine to its orbit, for restoring influence in the post -Soviet space, for the establishment of a pro -Russian regime in Kiev and for dismantling of European security. Crimea is only a stage, it is one of the factors, but not target and not content.
The recognition of Crimea will not stop the war, but only legalizes it. Moscow will receive the desired and will not give up Donbass, Kherson, Zaporozhye. On the contrary, it will assume that the strategy of waiting and pressure worked. This will continue the war on other fronts, increase the rates and risks of escalation.
Russia feels its truth. And so he considers himself strong. And in no way Ukraine will be able to change it. Remains either resist or accept.
The center of this issue is not only Crimea. The center is the principle: can force replace the right. If the answer is positive, the world will turn into an arena where it survives stronger, not one who is right.
The US, as the leader of the free world, must remain true to its obligations to international law and partners. Any step towards recognizing the occupation will be a betrayal not only and not so much of Ukraine, but of the whole order, built after 1945. The order that has allowed decades to avoid a great war in Europe.
Instead of recognition, it is necessary to look for mechanisms of real coercion to peace – diplomatic, economic, military. But not at the cost of surrender of morality. Otherwise, any other country can wake up under the flag of another state-without war, but without justice.