“No one retreats anywhere.” The Russians draw on the maps plans for spring-summer 2025: what can happen-an interview with Mashovets

– Institute of War Study (Isw) made some extent a controversial statement. It was written that Russia can start a new offensive, but probably does not have enough strength. Spring and summer, traditionally, no matter how it sounds, giving purely weather prerequisites to try to move. How is the scenario probable and what areas can be discussed? Also, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky speaks of one of the obvious risks – for Sumy region, border.

– Here it is necessary to distinguish what is meant by the “offensive”. The strategic offensive in one or two operating areas, large, with the purpose of defeating the Armed Forces, or some limited offensive operations of operational scale, operative-tactical.

When we quote the opinion of ISW, we need to understand what offensive they mean. Speaking of a strategic offensive, I agree that at this point, without further mobilization deployment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, it looks problematic-both from a military-technical point of view and in terms of replenishment and completion of part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation operating in the territory of Ukraine-the current army. Obviously, a number of associations and compounds need to be replenished with personnel, not to mention the replenishment of weapons and military equipment.

Especially when considering the possibilities of some offensive operations of larger, for a tactical scale – operational or strategic importance. Obviously, the enemy will need to deploy strategic reserves, much of which he spent during the winter offensive.