Negotiations in London on April 23: half a step before peace?

Tomorrow in the UK capital – London – there will be another round of peace talks regarding Ukraine. The main theme is to set the silence mode as the first step to a real peace. Representatives of Ukraine, Britain, France and the US will discuss the conditions of unconditional ceasefire.

This negotiation round is a continuation of all previous movements in this track. Namely: a visit to US representative Steve Witcoff to St. Petersburg and talking to Putin, negotiations in Paris and the Easter truce as a rehearsal. The US administration considers the negotiations in London decisive for a further peaceful process. All other participants, as well as Russia, are more cautious and skeptical about it.

What preceded tomorrow and what to expect from it? Are we really as close to peace as US representatives say? UA.news political observer Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.

London meeting: what was the day before

Negotiations in Britain, which will take place on Wednesday on April 23, cannot be considered outside the context, separated from current military-political realities. For a full understanding, it should be mentioned what preceded this meeting.

On April 11, a meeting of Trump Special Representative Steve Witcoff with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin took place in the Russian St. Petersburg. It was a long and systemic dialogue, which lasted more than four hours. After that, the American official flew to the United States to convey the requirements of the Kremlin head. Actually, they do not actually change and remain the same as they were.

It was after this conversation that Vitcoff declared five regions that allegedly “not very much needed by Ukraine”. It was about Crimea, as well as Donbas and Zaporozhye with Kherson region. The abandonment of them (actual rather than legal) allegedly could end the war, and this is a condition of Putin.

On April 17, the US Secretary of State Mark Rubio and Witcoff with European and Ukrainian colleagues took place in the French capital – Paris – Paris. Kit Kellogg, the Trump Messenger in Ukraine, was also present.

The US foreign ministers and defense ministers – Andriy Sibiga and Rustem Umerov, as well as OP OP Andriy Yermak, joined the US representatives. Rubio then said that he had arrived in Paris to “find real, practical solutions to end the Russian-Ukrainian war.”

In addition to Americans and Ukrainians, representatives of the United Kingdom and France also negotiated. The parties discussed the possibilities of completion of the war, the contours of the hypothetical peace agreement, as well as security guarantees for Ukraine. Unfortunately, no breakthroughs have taken place in the latter. After the negotiations, the US Secretary of State negotiated with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

It was then that Rubio stated that either Ukraine and Russia would reach peace in the near future, or America would come out of the negotiation process, because it is something to do in the international arena. Many interpreted these words as a sign of annoyance of Americans who are beginning to lose interest in a not -very promising topic.

“We will not continue to fly all over the world and meet for a meeting, if there is no progress. So if they (Russia and Ukraine-Ed.) Are serious about peace, either side or both, we want to help. If this does not happen, then we will just go further and move on to other topics that are the same, if not more important in a sense, for the United States, ”Rubio said.

The exit of America from the negotiation process is not needed by anyone. After all, Ukraine and Russia are interested in maintaining contacts with the current administration in the White House. Moreover, if for Russia it is a tool of international policy, commerce and prestige, then for Ukraine it is a matter of survival. Without the “roof” of the United States, the Ukrainian House quickly flooded geopolitical rain. For Europe, America remains a key partner primarily in the security field.

That is why all parties are interested in continuing negotiations. And this is apparently connected with the sudden partial truce for Easter, which ua.news has already analyzed in detail. It was a symbolic political gesture on the part of the Kremlin, which thus demonstrated Trump, which was allegedly capable of making concessions and “goodwill gestures.” For these reasons, Bankov agreed.

And tomorrow in London there will be another meeting in Ukraine. Donald Trump, as always, hyperbolizes and hopes that this week Kiev and Moscow will reach some agreement. Ukrainian and European reaction and expectations are more restrained. And Russia is the mouth of the negotiator from the United States Kirill Dmitriev does not hide his skepticism, because historically does not trust Britain.

The British Round of Negotiations: What to expect?

The key that is expected of these negotiations is arrangements for ceasefire. Moscow demonstrated that it was not able to fire Ukraine for 30 hours, as well as to seriously reduce the intensity of hostilities and storms on Earth. But it is a kind of “Demowov”. Further, so to speak, only “paid subscription”.

That is, the Kremlin does not want to go to a long ceasefire because it requires its conditions. These conditions will be discussed in London, and the future of the hypothetical truce depends on them. After the London meeting, the response of Ukraine and Europe to the conditions of the United States and the Russian Federation should be expected, and then, most likely, another visit to Vitcoff to Russia, where he will talk to Putin again.

The ceasefire conditions are known and repeatedly published in the Western media. This is a silence mode with fixation along the front line, and the territory captured by the Russians remain under the Russian Federation (without formal recognition). This is Ukraine’s refusal to NATO. This is the removal of some sanctions from the Russian Federation. As well as the neutral zone around the ZPP, the transfer of the station under the control of America and the “cherry on the cake” – the recognition of Washington of the Russian status of Crimea.

Some Western media already write that this is Trump’s last attempt to quickly reach peace between Ukraine and Russia. If it does not work, there is a great chance that the President of America will be self -eliminated from the process. Because the concessions of the US on the United States are so great. To demand something more for the Kremlin is frankly absurd.

But the problem is that for the occurrence of a truce (not even peace, but simply ceasefire), everyone must agree with the plan: both Ukraine, Europe, and Russia. Unfortunately, it is difficult to find something in common in the positions of these parties. Unless there is a touching synergy between the US and the Russian Federation, but it is not one hundred percent and synchronized.

There are two approaches to the analysis of tomorrow in London and the peace process in general. They can be divided into optimistic and pessimistic (realistic).

As part of the first approach, it is considered that all key peace agreements have already been reached, and now the case is solely on details and final agreement. The peace itself or at least the ceasefire in Ukraine should come about, soon, and in general, the war is close to its complete completion. This impression can be made if you listen to the statements of the White House or read Donald Trump’s daily emotional posts in capital letters.

However, there is another approach that can be called pessimistic or realistic, depending on your own attitude. It is that there are no special prospects in the peace process. The parties are as far as possible from any coincidence of positions, and no one really wants to compromise: neither Russia nor Ukraine. Both Moscow and Kiev believe that combat actions will be able to achieve better results, and therefore fundamentally interested in the end of the war.

If the first approach is correct, then the war can really stop at any time, moreover very soon. If the second – and most likely it is, it is – then a meeting in London will only become another element in a number of meetings, when everyone “negotiate”, but fundamentally do not come to nothing because of the fundamental difference in positions and approaches.

Expert opinions

Political scientist, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Ruslan Bortnik Considers the London meeting on April 23 an important stage in peace talks. The expert says she has the chance to become a “Rubicon” for a peaceful process.

“Commenting on a meeting in London in some ways is too early, since the negotiations themselves have not taken place. But the very fact of negotiations in London is important, given that the British delegation participated in the negotiations and in Paris. The fact that the parties went to London demonstrates that the US administration wants to reach an agreement not only with the political leaders of the UK, but also with British political elites. Therefore, a meeting in London, which will be accompanied by formal and informal negotiations. That is, the success of peace requires the “US-British Union”, a combination of positions for the success of a peace agreement.
Also, a meeting in London is a recognition of the influence that Britain has a Russian-Ukrainian war today. But it also means imposing responsibility on the British for its further course. Finally, we see a demonstration of distrust of Moscow, which is afraid that in London the previously reached projects of agreements in Paris will be reached. Therefore, I think that it is these London negotiations that will become a “Rubicon” for the current stage of negotiations, after which it will be clear whether the situation develops in the direction of the fade -off and regulation, whether it continues to develop in the direction of crisis and escalation, ” – said Ruslan Bortnik.

International Relations expert, journalist Dmitry Anopchenko He believes that the meeting in London will be difficult. And it is unlikely to expect a quick solution to the problem of war, as Donald Trump says.

“A rigid conversation is planned regarding the conditions (peace – ed.). The experts I spoke to the rapid solution are skeptical. They say: for example, the Allies will agree on Wednesday “London Plan”, Vitcoff will take him to Moscow on Thursday. The Kremlin will make counter requirements. Abolition of sanctions, recognition of de facto occupied territories of de jure. Not only the states then answer. Again, all allies to collect for another round in London or Paris? There is a version (I heard it from exported officials) that the American plan already includes agreed with the Kremlin. Therefore, Trump has such big plans for this week. But something of these points or Europeans, or Ukraine will be excluded accurately, and how to approve? That is, for all the desire of the truce (both in Kiev, in Europe, and in the states, where Trump is in hurry events, because he still wants to go to the May Saudi Summit with Putin) – there are many obstacles for this. And a lot of contradictions that are capable of slowing down, ”Dmitry Anopchenko said.

The only factor that can really affect the negotiation process is the US position. It seems that Trump is really close to getting out of negotiations because of their unpromisingness. It remains a certain probability that it is such blackmail and bluff, but we do not have evidence. At the same time, experts and analysts said a few months ago that in the absence of quick results, the President of America may lose interest in the process – it is very in the style of Trump’s personality.

And in such a variant of events, as noted above, no one is interested. Therefore, there is a likelihood that Americans will still press all sides to some format at least cease fire. However, even this is not an obvious scenario today, and there is a great concern that the meeting in London will be as in no avail as many such events before.