“In 2026, the Ukrainian military was left without a salary increase. Instead, the government and parliament allocated billions to finance the programs “National cashback”, “winter support”, the social program for buying railway tickets “UZ-3000”, “Checkup 40+”, “strategic communications” and other programs. In general, in the budget for next year, the opposition deputies counted UAH 68 billion of ineffective expenses. In response to the claims, the president”, — write on: ua.news
In 2026, the Ukrainian military was left without a salary increase. Instead, the government and parliament allocated billions to finance the programs “National cashback”, “winter support”, the social program for buying railway tickets “UZ-3000”, “Checkup 40+”, “strategic communications” and other programs. In general, in the budget for next year, the opposition deputies counted UAH 68 billion of ineffective expenses.
In response to the claims, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, explained that the increase in the salaries of the military was not included in the budget, because the existing funding deficit still needs to be closed.
Can the state cut the declared programs in favor of salaries for defenders? Why do social programs not really help low-income Ukrainians? And why will the next financial year be more difficult than the previous war years? Read about it in the blitz interview of the head of the Economic Discussion Club, Oleh Pendzyn.
Was it possible to withdraw funds for the military?
Without illusions. These are completely different sources. Funding used for declared social programs cannot be used to raise salaries for military personnel. For the simple reason that the source of social programs is the macro-financial assistance of our partners, where there are clear restrictions on the use of these funds for security and defense. Therefore, it is impossible to increase the monetary maintenance of military personnel through the mechanism of reducing these programs.
Theoretically, it is possible, for example, to initiate medical assistance within the framework of these programs for the families of military personnel or other ways of supporting the families of the mobilized. Theoretically, you could think about it. But it is impossible to directly finance wages from the funds of these programs. There should be no illusions about this and speculations on this topic.
State support for the rich?
My personal opinion about these programs is negative. And it is negative for one simple reason: nowhere in the world does anyone support the rich, except for Switzerland. There is a basic income that does not depend on how much you earn yourself.
In other civilized countries, there is a fairly clear division: the middle and rich are donors to the country’s budget, and not recipients (recipients) of state aid.
And how is it going in Ukraine? The meaning of “National Cashback” is that the more money you spend, the more support you get. That is, in order to receive the maximum cashback amount of UAH 3,000 per month, you need to spend UAH 30,000 on Ukrainian-made goods.
If you have money, then you can spend these 30 thousand hryvnias. And if not? You will get less cashback in any case. That is, there is a direct dependence of receiving national cashback on your property status. Basically, who are we supporting? The rich
The distribution of the “winter thousand” does not depend on whether you are rich or poor. Well, for what reason? Then it is worth giving not UAH 1,000, but UAH 5,000, but to low-income citizens.
It is especially worth considering how the budget for the payment of the “winter thousand” is filled. It is about UAH 11 billion. This money was taken from other support programs for low-income families. There are still 3.5 billion hryvnias transferred from social protection programs for children. Why do this?
Another program is the medical “Checkup 40+”. Sounds like an interesting program. But can’t a rich person go to a private clinic and pay for this wait on his own? Maybe
That is, for me, as an economist dealing with the social sphere, a huge question arises: what is the reason for supporting the rich today? I don’t know the answer.
What depends on the salaries of military personnel
The President of Ukraine said directly that the salaries of the military can be increased only if $50 billion of military technical assistance is allocated for 2026. In order to maintain financial payments to military personnel at the current level, the state allocated UAH 1.3 trillion. This is taking into account the basic level of UAH 20,000 per month. If we plan to increase expenditures on salaries by a third, the expenditures in the state budget should automatically increase by a third.
And in our country, all general expenditures on security and defense reach UAH 2.8 trillion. It includes the purchase of weapons, investments in the military-industrial complex, training, food, maintenance and many other programs for the army.
In order to increase the salary of military personnel by 10,000, instead of 1.3 trillion hryvnias, we have to spend conditionally 2 trillion hryvnias from the state budget. 800 billion remain. What can UAH 800 billion buy for defense? Next to nothing.
Therefore, this increase will depend on whether additional financial support will come from partners.
In fact, you can promise anything. But where to get funding? For example, instead of 20 thousand basic salary — 40 thousand. But then instead of 1.3 trillion hryvnias, 2.6 trillion will be needed.
It’s not a matter of whether I want it or not, it’s not even a matter of social justice. It is a question of the source — where to get such money?
A difficult financial year is ahead
The year 2026 will be difficult from various points of view. Personally, I have great doubts that we will be given an operating loan. It will not be given. It is quite likely that we will be allocated some kind of interim loan. But the level of pressure on Ukraine to sign, in fact, the capitulation terms of peace, will increase sharply. This is without a doubt.
There is no doubt that in 2026 we will have to hold elections, as well as a referendum on the territories. Because today we feel an unprecedented level of pressure. In fact, we will get a repetition of the Munich Agreement of 1938: “appeasement” of the aggressor, “appeasement” by giving him the territory that he seized.
The problem is that our survival is tied to this grand politics. Because if they don’t give us $45 billion for next year, there will be nothing to finance social expenses. And if there is no financing of social expenditures, then there will be no pensions and salaries for state employees.
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