Lawrence Friedman — biography, photos, news, publications

The worst scenarios are designed to show what will happen if the wrong choice is made

October 19, 07:13 15

Will Ukraine and the US be able to agree on a plan for victory

September 1, 10:30 p.m 5699

Why it will be difficult to conclude a peace agreement in practice

July 25, 2:40 p.m 2276

I have collected all the data on the negotiations that have already taken place between Russia and Ukraine, the current stated positions of both sides and what is known about the alleged “Trump plan”

July 23, 07:13 21381

My main purpose in this story is to explain why, contrary to the idea that wars should end in negotiated solutions, in practice they rarely do.

June 30, 11:02 p.m 13693

Putin tends to blame his victims for any forceful action he decides to take, while keeping everyone wondering where his other “red lines” are and what might happen if they are crossed

June 17, 2:41 p.m 6485

The phrase that this is an extremely dangerous time in world politics has already turned into a cliché. But let’s go into more detail

June 9, 10:50 p.m 9226

Earlier this year, Putin had reason to believe he had a path to victory as his troops put heavy pressure on Ukrainian positions. What now?

May 12, 10:42 27559

Escalation and speculation /

Red lines of the Kremlin. What Putin is really saying is an analysis of nuclear threats

Putin is more than capable of tactical lying, but he can also be quite transparent. The starting point of any analysis should be attention to what it says

May 8, 11:01 p.m 15461

Constant failures in achieving the set goals only increase Putin’s fanaticism

May 5, 9:30 p.m 4922

Over the past two years, Putin has managed to create a sense of threat and danger that nuclear weapons can be used. And what now?

April 1, 10:05 3545

The pendulum swung /

“Dim prospects” of Ukraine. Is everything really that bad?

Recently, the pendulum has swung again towards pessimism about Ukraine, as Russia has not collapsed and continues to exist

February 10, 10:35 22026

After 2023, when both Russia and Ukraine expected military successes and were disappointed, this new year begins with such low expectations that the only thing that can surprise anyone are the events that will bring us closer to resolving the situation

January 8, 22:00 153680

The Hateful Game /

Putin’s next move. About Russia’s war against Ukraine – on the example of chess

Having started a war he intended to win quickly by exploiting his enemy’s weaknesses, Putin now fears an outcome that exposes his own weaknesses

December 26, 2023, 09:30 48377

The situation has changed /

The next few months will be very difficult. What should Ukraine do?

There is always a temptation to believe in one “big leap” that will decide the outcome of the war. But the situation has changed too much.

December 9, 2023, 11:16 p.m 17164

Alternative /

Putin’s real strategy. What Moscow is counting on next year

Putin can hope that time is on his side and the West will lose interest in war. But there is an alternative possibility

November 26, 2023, 7:30 p.m 9810

Consider two wars that occupy the center of the headlines today

November 23, 2023, 3:45 p.m 1469

The real challenge is to find a coherent political formula for Gaza that at least reduces the political and military role of Hamas.

October 25, 2023, 4:38 p.m 3735

Many critics of the Biden administration’s stance on Ukraine have recently questioned how appropriate it is to use American resources to support Ukraine’s struggle

September 17, 2023, 12:00 p.m 5865

Putin began to annoy countries that today have a significant influence on the international arena

August 27, 2023, 09:30 6710