“Is the Ukrainian air defense really weakening and why are the shahedis flying over the center of Kyiv — analysis by BBC Ukraine November 15, 15:10 Share: In recent weeks, Russian shahedis have often been flying over the center of Kyiv (Photo: BBC Collage/ERA/Getty Images) Ukraine is entering its third major winter war with Russia, worrying about the state of its own air defense. In the fall of 2024, Moscow emphasized massive and daily attacks by kamikaze drones, but”, — write on: ua.news
Is the Ukrainian air defense really weakening and why are the Shaheds flying over the center of Kyiv — an analysis by BBC Ukraine In recent weeks, Russian Shaheds often fly in the center of Kyiv (Photo: BBC Collage/ERA/Getty Images)
Ukraine is entering the third winter of a major war with Russia, worried about the state of its own air defense. Moscow has focused on mass and daily kamikaze drone attacks in the fall of 2024, but is also likely stockpiling missiles for a powerful air strike. Threats and risks for Ukraine were analyzed by BBC journalist Oleg Chernysh. NV publishes his material under the rights of information cooperation.
It is significant that during the autumn “Shakhed” again began to fly quite often even into the center of Kyiv and circle over the capital, which gave rise to many rumors about the alleged weakening of the air defense system – at least in the Kyiv region.
What is actually happening with air defense and what should Ukraine do?
What is Russia attacking?
On the morning of November 13, the Russian army attacked the capital of Ukraine with ballistic and cruise missiles for the first time in 73 days. The Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that the enemy fired four such weapons and all of them were shot down.
At the same time, out of 90 drones, mostly of the type “Shahed”, shot down 37. There were 47 more “locationally lost”.
According to the statistics of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the absolute majority of the air attack means of the Russian Federation are neutralized even before they hit the target.
So, in August-October, Russia used 4,300 UAVs of the type strike in Ukraine “Shahed” and their counterparts. The Ukrainian General Staff assures that the Defense Forces managed to shoot down 3,063 drones, i.e. 71%.
Another 24% (1052 pieces) are those drones that have become “locationally lost”, i.e. disappeared from radars. This is due to the fact that they fall due to the active use of EW means or after running out of fuel in the tank.
Usually, this is not how “Shakhed” is neutralized, but cheaper and simpler analogues, for example, the so-called “Gerbers”. During raids, Russia can use up to half of these UAVs to confuse Ukrainian defenses.
At the same time, in the first half of 2024, the situation was somewhat different. 94% of drones were shot down, and less than 1% of EWs were neutralized.
The percentage of hits on the Russian target “Shahedov” during the year is only about 5-6%.
At the same time, Russia is constantly modifying them, using cheaper materials, a more powerful warhead, better means of countering EW. This has already led to the fact that attack UAVs move along more complex routes, constantly change their altitude and avoid obstacles.
However, despite this, experts also talk about problems with Ukrainian air defense. The Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s rate decision of November 11 also tentatively indicates their presence. The issue was discussed at it “strengthening of air defense”.
In particular, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the decision to increase the number of mobile fire groups (MVG) in regions that are priority targets for Russian air strikes. Fighters of these units should also receive better equipment and training.
Problems of mobile fire groups
“Russian drones should not fly to Kyiv at all. This is precisely the problem of the quality of work of mobile fire groups,” one of the Ukrainian high-ranking officials believes.
He tells the BBC that the analysis of Russian flights “Shahedov” showed that their routes mostly intersected at several points. Accordingly, if you place an anti-aircraft missile at these points, the chance of shooting down an attack drone will be much higher.
However, this does not happen. Some mobile groups act chaotically and do not even close their defense area, others have very weak shooting training and problems with equipment. Accordingly, the effectiveness of their combat work is not as high as it should be.
It also recently became known that part of the fighters from the Air Force are being transferred to the infantry. This was confirmed by Yuriy Ignat, the head of the communications department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, he noted that the work of shooting down Russian UAVs is carried out not only by the Air Force, but also by other components of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
Indeed, the same MVG mostly belong to the Ground Forces, similar units are part of the National Guard and the Border Guard.
Reserve General, former Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Air Defense Ihor Romanenko notes that in the fall, the Russian Federation rapidly increased the number of its long-range strike drones, but Ukraine does not have the ability to quickly increase the number of necessary weapons for air defense.
In particular, anti-aircraft machine guns, with which the MVG is mainly armed, cannot help against “Shahedov”, which fly at a high altitude of 2-3 km and most often at night. And when they suddenly decrease to 150-200 m, it becomes more difficult to work with missile systems.
“Many of these mobile groups are poorly armed and have a short range. Yes, it is necessary to increase the number of MVG, but for this we need appropriate means. And there are very few of them. That is why such a result is obtained,” says the BBC expert.
Mobile groups would become more effective if armed with modern MANPADS (portable anti-aircraft missile complexes). However, this is a rather scarce commodity for the Ukrainian army.
Another way out is to more actively involve fighter aircraft, Romanenko believes. However, there is a nuance here. There are still few Western aircraft in Ukraine, besides, the reserve general says, Swedish Gripen fighters would be more suitable for Ukrainian realities, rather than American F-16s, which are now being handed over to Kyiv.
A source in the Ukrainian government told the BBC that the F-16 fighter jets were actually already involved in repelling Russian air attacks, but did not perform too well in the fight against “Shahedov”. Combat helicopters, such as the Mi-8, can be more effective against such relatively slow and low-flying targets.
What to replace expensive rockets
If we return to weapons, the main problem remains the cost of missiles that are used against “Shahedov”.
The fact is that Ukraine has a rather limited supply of anti-aircraft missiles for Western air defense systems, such as Patriot, IRIS, SAMP-T and NASAMS. They are more necessary for anti-missile defense.
At the beginning of November, it became known that the USA is preparing to send Kiev 500 more anti-missile systems for these systems, which should cover the need by the end of the year.
In any case, wasting scarce and very expensive American anti-aircraft missiles or MANPADS against relatively cheap Russian UAVs is not a very effective solution.
The Ukrainian authorities also agree with this. Here they are looking for a solution to reduce the cost of beating “Shahedov” and at the same time do not lose in efficiency.
The way out is the development of our own inexpensive missiles. On November 2, the Minister of Strategic Industry Herman Smetanin announced the signing of a memorandum with the Belgian manufacturer Thales.
“This agreement provides for the joint production of missiles to counter enemy UAVs. We also expect that this cooperation will expand in the future – to the transfer of technologies and components for these missiles,” the minister emphasized.
He did not provide details about the specified missiles, but emphasized that this is a decision “will strengthen the Ukrainian military defense system and the protection of critical infrastructure from enemy drones.”
Also, the Ministry of Defense announced that an agreement had been reached with the Estonian defense company Frankenburg Technologies. It will provide Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles for testing, which are designed primarily to counter UAVs and are capable of shooting down targets at an altitude of up to 2 km.
In case of successful tests and approval for further use, the production of these missiles can be organized in Ukraine.
Drones against the Shaheds
Meanwhile, another perspective solution has already reached the stage of practical application. We are talking about the use of FPV drones against “Shahedov”. The first such developments became known in 2023.
This summer, the Ukrainian military began using quadcopters to shoot down Russian reconnaissance UAVs, such as “Orlany” and Zala. However, hunt “Shahedi” has not yet succeeded by such means.
At the beginning of November, the Ukrainian manufacturer “Wild Hornets” showed the final tests of its Sting interceptor drone. This small quadcopter is designed specifically to destroy enemies “Shahedov” in the sky.
The BBC knows that several other Ukrainian development teams are working on similar solutions.
As for Sting, the producers have not yet made his photo publicly available. However, in October, the image of the quadcopter was distributed by the British publication The Telegraph.
Its main features are high speed, probably more than 250 km/h (because he has to catch up “Shahed”, which flies at 180 km/h) and the aerodynamic shape of the combat unit.
Probably, this quadrocopter is already being tested in combat conditions. At least the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, Maryan Zablotsky, published a post on his Facebook page on November 9, where he announced that he had already “hunted Shahedi” with the team “Wild hornets”.
“Specifically, our team has not been lucky so far, but others are already really successful. The guys use special drones to land Iranian drones, for which a grant was previously issued with funds from American donors,” the parliamentarian noted.
“I am sure that the problem of Shaheds will be solved soon,” he added.
If this problem is really solved, then the Ukrainian air defense will have only one pressing question – how to counter hundreds of anti-aircraft missiles (guided aerial bombs) that the Russian aviation drops every day on Ukrainian territory? There is no ready-made solution against this, admits the source of the BBC in power.
The most obvious solution — the destruction of Russian aircraft at airfields in the rear — is blocked by Western partners.
Another way is the development of powerful EW systems that would affect the satellite guidance system of KABs. There is some progress in this direction, the interlocutor added, but it is too early to talk about solving the problem.
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