“Most of the factors of the inflationary surge in Ukraine are temporary. Inflation will increase until April-May 2025, and then decline. Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, director of the Department of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis of the National Bank of Ukraine, said this, RBC-Ukraine reports. “The annual rate of inflation will accelerate until April-May due to the effects of the comparison base. And then it will start to slow down. With the arrival of a new food crop on the market”, — write on: ua.news
Most of the factors of the inflationary surge in Ukraine are temporary. Inflation will increase until April-May 2025, and then decline.
Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, director of the Department of Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis of the National Bank of Ukraine, said this, RBC-Ukraine reports.
“The annual rate of inflation will accelerate until April-May due to the effects of the comparison base. And then it will start to slow down. With the arrival of the new crop on the market, food inflation will decrease. Of course, there is a certain probability that there will be dry weather for the second year in a row, but such a risk is insignificant,” said Lepushynskyi.
He added that in such a case, the deficit of domestic products will be compensated by imports, with the value of which the prices of vegetables have already equaled. A repeat of this year’s situation is possible only if adverse weather conditions are global in nature, which is even less likely.
According to the representative of the NBU, the impact of higher costs on energy and wages will also decrease. Energy supply costs have already been reflected in the cost of goods and services. Wages will increase, but the pace will slow down.
Lepushynsky emphasizes that the reaction of the National Bank is important for reducing inflation.
“The temporary nature of most factors of inflation should not be a reason for complacency. Watching how inflation slowly decreases is also a strategy, but a risky one,” the expert believes.
The surveillance strategy was chosen, in particular, by the world’s central banks in the postwar period. The consequence of such a policy was a long-term increase in inflation, in order to control which central banks had to significantly raise interest rates.
We will remind that the prices of products in Ukraine for 2024 increased by an average of 14.1%. Vegetables, dairy products and sunflower oil rose in price the most.
In November 2024, consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 11.2%. Product inflation accelerated to 14.3%.
In October 2024, egg prices jumped by 60%. Producers argue for this by increasing prices for fodder, energy sources, etc.
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