In the US, it is assumed that Ukraine may lose all the captured territories of the Kursk region by spring — Bloomberg

This will deprive Kyiv of important leverage for ceasefire negotiations with Russia, Bloomberg reports on Friday, December 27.

The publication notes that the Ukrainian army is already facing a shortage of personnel and uncertainty regarding future arms deliveries from the US and other allies. In addition, about 12,000 North Korean troops reinforced the Russian army.

According to American officials, Moscow may try to oust the ZSU from Kursk Oblast as early as January 2025. In this case, the Defense Forces of Ukraine will probably be able to hold the territory only until spring, after which they will have to retreat or risk being encircled.

Time is a key factor, US officials believe, as Ukrainian officials have announced their intention to use the territory captured in Kursk Oblast as leverage in possible negotiations. Although US President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his desire to end the war quickly, reaching agreements on a ceasefire could take months, according to Bloomberg.

Russia may be interested in dragging out this process in order to capture as much Ukrainian territory as possible before negotiations and a potential cease-fire cement the front line, the newspaper writes.

At the same time, the Ukrainian military was able to hold the territory in the Kursk region longer than originally predicted, thanks in part to the US decision to allow Kyiv to launch long-range missile strikes on Russian territory, one of the officials said.

Another official believes that Ukraine never aimed to hold the Kursk region, but rather sought to create the shock effect of a counteroffensive and further exhaust Russian forces. Thus, retreating from these areas “can still be presented as a tactical success,” he added.

Two other U.S. officials expressed hope that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi would issue a timely order to withdraw from Kursk Oblast to avoid heavy casualties.

Despite the likely retreat of Ukraine, the Kursk operation has already caused significant losses to both Russian and North Korean forces.

“It was always clear that Russia could take back Kursk if it wanted to,” said the head of the Russia and Geospatial Intelligence Group at the American Institute for the Study of War. (ISW) George Barros.

According to him, this operation demonstrated that the Russian border is not fully protected and can be breached at other points. It also became obvious that the use of American weapons on the territory of Russia did not lead to a “catastrophic escalation”, which was feared in the West.

“By advancing in the Kursk region, the Ukrainians showed that the war has not reached a dead end, but on the contrary, is quite dynamic,” said George Barros.

He believes that this demonstrated to the allies that by supporting Ukraine, they are thereby weakening Russia’s military and economic resources.

An American official told Bloomberg that if Russian forces launch a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, they will likely target key roads and cities. In this way, they would force the Ukrainians to retreat, and for this Russia can send additional North Korean troops.

According to the official, North Korea may provide about 8,000 more soldiers to support Russia’s efforts by spring, but he cautioned that this is not a very likely estimate, because it is not yet possible to draw a clear conclusion based on the information gathered.

Another official believes that even without North Korean troops, Russia is able to offset its own heavy losses, which the US estimates average about 1,200 soldiers per day. However, this is a level that cannot be sustained indefinitely without new mobilization, he added.

Against the background of uncertainty regarding the Kursk region, Russian troops continue to advance in eastern Ukraine in the direction of Pokrovsk, an important logistics hub. American officials believe “a matter of time, when Russian troops will be able to surround the city.”