“The sooner Donald Trump, who will officially become the president of the United States today, wants to stop hostilities, the more he will need to first strengthen the position of Ukraine. This is necessary to convince Vladimir Putin that he can only lose by refusing real peace with his neighbor. Bloomberg writes about it. The mass media notes that 2024 has become a “nightmare” for Kyiv.”, — write on: ua.news
The sooner Donald Trump, who will officially become the president of the United States today, wants to stop hostilities, the more he will need to first strengthen the position of Ukraine. This is necessary to convince Vladimir Putin that he can only lose by refusing real peace with his neighbor.
Bloomberg writes about it.
The mass media notes that 2024 has become a “nightmare” for Kyiv. To a large extent, this situation was created by the collapse of the “victory formula” at the beginning of the war, which consisted in the involvement of Ukrainian motivated manpower in modern Western arsenals.
The sooner Trump wants to end the war, the more he needs to strengthen Ukraine to convince Putin that he is better off making peace. Conversely, the less committed Trump is to the defense of Ukraine, the less incentive Putin will have to negotiate or compromise, the publication believes.
A strong position in practice means that Ukraine will be able to continue to impose very high costs on Russia and stop its advance on the ground. And Putin will know that Kyiv has the support to continue as long as necessary.
There are some signs that the team in the new US administration has realized this, as it has begun to push back expectations for the timing of any peace deal from 24 hours after Trump’s inauguration to 100 days or more. But so far, the only reports of a concrete approach suggest that Washington hopes easing oil and other sanctions will encourage Putin to play fair.
Bloomberg believes that the best step would be to restore the “symbiosis” between Ukrainian manpower and Western weapons that existed until last year. However, this effective model began to crumble after Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive in 2023. But it only really “collapsed” last year, when the US Congress delayed more than $60 billion in vital aid and allies began cutting their arms and ammunition supplies.
At the same time, the advantage in manpower that Ukraine enjoyed earlier during the war disappeared. The lack of ammunition and equipment needed to survive against Russia’s growing military machine also made the idea of volunteering less appealing.
This negative trend can be broken in 2025. Kyiv’s own weapons production capacity has grown dramatically since the beginning of the war, to the point that in many regions the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine needs money to buy products, not Western-made weapons and ammunition.
Although the outlook on the battlefield is bleak, there are no signs of a collapse or a Russian breakthrough yet. Having more well-equipped soldiers to shore up Ukraine’s defense lines and regain the initiative on the battlefield will be a critical factor in persuading Putin to negotiate a real settlement, the paper concludes.
Earlier we wrote that Ukraine could become “Vietnam for Trump”.
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