“US President Donald Trump’s team has already understood all the complexity and multi-layeredness of the Ukrainian case. Therefore, no quick decisions regarding a peaceful settlement should be expected. Political scientist, director of the “Third Sector” center Andriy Zolotaryov expressed this opinion in a comment to our publication. When asked about possible models for the end of the war by the 47th president of the USA, the expert said that it is actually working”, — write on: ua.news
US President Donald Trump’s team has already understood all the complexity and multi-layeredness of the Ukrainian case. Therefore, no quick decisions regarding a peaceful settlement should be expected.
Political scientist, director of the “Third Sector” center Andriy Zolotaryov expressed this opinion in a comment to our publication.
When asked about the possible models for the end of the war by the 47th US president, the expert said that in fact there is only one working scenario for now: it is the freezing of the war. Next, perhaps, there will be a question about the introduction of a peacekeeping contingent.
“So far, as a working scenario, Trump’s team is developing a plan, in fact, to freeze the war along the line of combat with the subsequent introduction of a contingent of conditional peacekeepers. I say “conditional”, because it is very difficult to call the contingents of Britain, France or Poland classic peacekeepers (according to the UN charter, peacekeepers should represent only countries that are not involved in the conflict in any way – ed.). But something in this spirit is thrown at Trump as a peace plan. And this, apparently, is one of the reasons why Keith Kellogg postponed his visit to Kyiv. Because talks about sending contingents to Ukraine have remained talks, because neither France nor Britain is ready to move from words to action yet,” says Zolotaryov.
According to the political scientist, simple solutions to complex problems are always heard during elections. But then the winning team faces political realities. That’s when the “transition” occurs from the end of the war in 24 hours to three months, six months, and so on.
“It seems that Trump’s team has already understood all the complexity and multi-layered nature of the Ukrainian war. And I don’t expect quick solutions. Perhaps, after the contacts between Trump and Putin, some kind of negotiation platform and negotiation base will appear. But the fact is that the parties are still cosmically far from a compromise and the possibility of a truce.
Today’s freeze does not suit either Kyiv or Moscow. Both sides have not yet exhausted their resources. So they are not ready to accept the demands of the Americans. Especially since Russia remains on the positions declared by Putin last summer. This is… an ultimate demand that Ukrainian troops leave 4 regions, that sanctions be lifted from the Russian Federation, and then, they say, we will sit down and talk… Of course, such a formula is unacceptable. It is also clear that there are no borders of 1991 today either,” Zolotaryov believes.
At the same time, the expert notes that there will definitely be attempts to come to an agreement. He mentions the statement of Steve Bannon, a conservative ideologue close to Trump, who points to the danger of turning Ukraine into a new “Vietnam” for the United States. Zolotaryov compares Trump with President Lyndon Johnson, who got involved in the Vietnam War, and then his successor Richard Nixon tried to get out of this conflict for a long time and with difficulty.
“In the near future, it is necessary to look not at what they say, but at what the parties will do. And this applies primarily to the Trump team’s plans for a peaceful settlement… As long as there is a logic to Trump’s intentions. But there is also the force of circumstances that he will have to face,” Andriy Zolotaryov summarized.
Earlier, we wrote that America fears that Ukraine will turn into “Vietnam for Trump.”
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