“For NATO to enter the war.” Russia may try to seize part of Estonia’s territories — Politico

This was reported by Politico on Thursday, December 26.

It is noted that the border city of Narva, which has become the epicenter of constant provocations by the Russian Federation, attracts “special attention of the Kremlin”. Among them are the jamming of the satellite signal, the theft of border navigation buoys, active propaganda and the use of reconnaissance drones.

“We have no intention of starting World War III, but we are constantly faced with attempts to provoke us into actions that will have serious consequences,” said Egert Belichev, Director General of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Department.

As the publication notes, a quarter of the population of Estonia (out of 1.4 million) are ethnic Russians. Most of them have Estonian citizenship and feel a strong connection to the country.

However, the Kremlin has repeatedly used ethnic differences to claim a “special role in the protection of the Russian diaspora.” Such tactics have already been used in Georgia, Moldova, and it also “became a pretext for the invasion of Ukraine,” writes Politico.

There are fears that the Kremlin may try to use the scenario of protecting the Russian diaspora to seize eastern Estonia to force NATO to launch a global war in retaliation. In case of inactivity of the Alliance, it will show that the provisions of Article 5 of the treaty on joint defense do not make sense, the publication notes.

Politico adds that in 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin hinted that Narva, an Estonian border town, was allegedly historically part of Russia.

It is noted that Narva, the third largest city in Estonia, is located closer to St. Petersburg than to Tallinn. Of the 56,000 residents, 96% speak Russian, and a third have Russian passports. Egert Belichev named Narva “the end of the free world” and believes that Estonia’s NATO allies are not ready for what could happen here.

About 900 British soldiers are stationed at the Tapa Air Base, west of Tallinn, as part of NATO’s multinational force. There are also French troops in Estonia. Great Britain has assured the readiness of its 4th Brigade Combat Team for rapid deployment if necessary.

NATO has established battle groups in most of its eastern member states and plans to increase its presence in Latvia and Lithuania. However, the Alliance did not make such commitments in Estonia due to the limited capabilities of the British Army, which has only two armored brigades.

As Politico points out, in the event of a Russian attack, NATO forces stationed at the base in Tapa, along with 7,700 Estonian military personnel (the number of which in the event of a war may increase to 43 thousand), may not have sufficient firepower to repel an attack.

Egert Belichev noted that during the recent visit of the Belgian delegation to Estonia, the main focus was on the evacuation of their citizens, while the serious issues of the rapid redeployment of troops to protect the Baltics were not actually discussed.

“I think that the Allies do not have the same understanding of the situation as we do. This was evident back in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, and in 2014, during the occupation of Crimea. It remains just as relevant now. People simply do not understand the real situation,” he emphasized.

For Estonia, the issue of interaction with the large eastern neighbor is extremely relevant. The smallest Baltic state already spends 3.4% of its GDP on defense and plans to increase this figure to 3.7% in 2025, ahead of the larger EU states.

There are fears in Tallinn that Russia could use any pause in the war against Ukraine to attack the vulnerable NATO country.

This threat makes border protection even more important, Belichev emphasized, adding that Estonia aims to ensure surveillance of every meter of the 338-kilometer border with Russia. However, the implementation of this plan remains a difficult challenge.

On December 24, Estonian President Alar Karis said that defense spending must be increased, not to prepare for war, but to prevent it.

A possible Russian attack on NATO – what is known

In December 2023, the Bild publication, citing its own sources in the intelligence of one of the European countries, reported that Russia may try to attack Europe in late 2024 or early 2025, when the United States finds itself “without a leader” and will be able to come to the aid of European states only after a certain delay.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in January 2024 that Europe is again “facing a military threat that has not existed for 30 years” and warned of the possibility of an attack by Russia in five to eight years.

American intelligence reported in March that Russia does not want a direct military conflict with the United States and NATO and will continue asymmetric activities, which, according to its estimates, will not cross the threshold of a military conflict on a global scale.

German intelligence says that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conflict with NATO and may attack at least part of the Alliance’s territory as early as 2026.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Norway, Eirik Kristoffersen, stated that NATO has two to three years to prepare for a possible confrontation with Russia.

For his part, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that Russia could attack a NATO ally or another neighboring state as early as 2029.