“The issue of input of the contingent of European troops to Ukraine (in the media they are called “European peacekeepers”, although this is not quite correct) has been discussed for the first time. In itself, a good idea in vacuum, in reality, can face a lot of obstacles and contradictions. Currently, this case seems to be finally stuck into the feast of geopolitical twists. Recently Financial Times”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
The issue of input of the contingent of European troops to Ukraine (in the media they are called “European peacekeepers”, although this is not quite correct) has been discussed for the first time. In itself, a good idea in vacuum, in reality, can face a lot of obstacles and contradictions. Currently, this case seems to be finally stuck into the feast of geopolitical twists.
Recently Financial Times with reference to European officials wrote that plans for the introduction of EU peacekeepers in Ukraine are actually “dead”. All because of the lack of support from Donald Trump, which the US president does not want to provide. Without the same involvement of European troops, it looks “meaningless”, writes journalists.
This reason is definitely one of the main ones, but not exactly the only and not the main, because the discussion of this case began before Trump headed America. In general, the introduction of EU troops into Ukraine has not been very realistic scenario from the very beginning.
What do they say about this in the West and what are the reasons for the peacekeeping mission of Europeans in Ukraine? UA.news political observer Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.
A coalition of “those who want but incapable”
The FT material concludes that the introduction of EU troops without support from the United States does not make any sense. Trump, however, opposes such initiatives, or at least does not intend to provide them with any support. Such things on the rights of anonymity are spoken by European officials.
Instead, there is a different view of the situation, journalists write. For example, one of the French diplomats that the publication spoke with, said that there were no problems, and the discussion of the initiative continues “at a normal pace”.
According to FT, the main initiators of the peacekeeping mission – France and Britain – continue to support the idea, despite anything. In turn, other players are “more skeptical”. For example, Germany and some other states. Again, Trump support is resting in the United States and lack of support.
The most interesting thing is why then in Europe continue to insist on the introduction of peacekeepers, although, as it becomes clear, this case has no progress? The publication writes that there are two reasons. The first – Europe thus tries to stay in the negotiation process. The second – so Europeans want to “support the moral spirit of Ukraine”.
EU troops in Ukraine: Why was it unlikely from the outset
Back in December 2024 in the material on this topic UA.news wrote : The question of the introduction of peacekeepers remains purely theoretical. And to call them peacekeepers in the iteration in which it was offered is not very correct. After all, a peacekeeping mission is impossible without a UN mandate, in which the Russian Federation is vetoed.
In our article we wrote: there are no guarantees that partners’ troops will find themselves in Ukraine (at least in the near future), and in general the probability is more hypothetical. So far, our forecasts come true.
Why? There are several reasons.
The first and main reason – This is Russia. The position of the aggressor country in this matter is categorical, without any compromises (in fact, as always). Moscow is strongly against any contingents of European countries, because almost all of them are NATO members. This is unacceptable for Russia, because Nativ soldiers in the Ukrainian territory for some reason are not the greatest fear of Putin.
It would seem to be afraid of Europeans? After all, the Kremlin’s “red lines” have long been a reason for anecdotes and memes. However, there is a fundamental difference here: Russia explicitly states that in the event of the emergence of European troops in the Ukrainian territory, its army will strike on this contingent. Europe is absolutely not ready to lose its soldiers in Ukraine under no circumstances.
So it turns out a classic situation when one side is ready to kill and die and the other is not. And so evil wins the situationally.
The second reason – This is really the US and Donald Trump position. The current US administration is not going to provide Europeans with any help. More: Washington does not want to guarantee EU troops.
And without security guarantees, these troops will turn into a target for Russian missiles. As soon as Europe suggests the first losses from direct blows of the Russian Federation, it will immediately create an unprecedented political crisis in the EU. You will either have to display the contingent or go into a direct war with Russia, followed by strategic uncertainty, including the possibility of nuclear apocalypse.
The third reason – In the war itself. Recently UA.news, analyzing the strengthening of Ukraine’s air terror and exacerbation of the situation at the front, wrote that the fighting became even more far from completion than ever. And the root of the word “peacekeepers” is “peace”.
That is, any placement of the peacekeeping contingent requires stopping combat. Otherwise it will not work. Europeans, when they put forward this idea, could expect that the war would end soon. Subsequently, they may have been counting on fast freezing after Trump’s arrival.
But this has not happened and it does not seem to happen in the near future. Russia clearly makes it clear that it does not want to go to the truce and cease fire. On the contrary, Moscow clearly plans a new offensive. Therefore, peacekeepers become irrelevant.
The fourth reason – lack of political unity in Europe. Britain, which is not a member of the European Union by the way, is solidarity with France. However, Germany, according to the media, is already hesitating. Among the skeptics, most likely, Poland, Italy, the Netherlands, etc. As for the conditional Hungary or Slovakia, nothing to say: they are against any form of assistance to Ukraine, and even more so strongly against the departure of troops.
Finally, the fifth reason – Europe’s nonsense in terms of both Putin and Trump. The FT article says that one of the key reasons that the same France with Britain continue to pump the topic of peacekeepers in public discourse, there is a desire to stay in the negotiation with Ukraine, the USA and the Russian Federation.
However, Russian, that American leaders do not hide their skepticism and neglect to Europeans. They do not consider them to negotiate. Dialogue is in fact in two formats: the United States and the Russian Federation and Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The EU in none of them is essentially involved.
Expert opinions
Political scientist, director of the Third Sector Center Andriy Zolotarev He considers statements about the possibility of the emergence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine only part of political rhetoric. In the plane of practical implementation of this idea there is a so There are many obstacles.
“The loud statements of the representatives of the“ European Trika ”are not supported by real opportunities. If we talk about peacekeepers, it should be borne in mind that it is a thousand kilometers of the front, which in most European countries simply will not have enough soldiers. It’s just one detail. The other is a politically unpopular idea. No one really wants to take risks. There is also a legal aspect. If there is a UN mandate, then it is most likely blocked by Russia, which is strongly opposed to the emergence of representatives of European countries. Moscow believes that if they support Ukraine, it is one of the parties to the conflict. And in principle, it does not deny the possibility of peacekeepers, but to be peacekeeping from third countries – for example, from the countries of the Global South.
Who can appear in Ukraine when a truce occurs? Rather, it can be a supervisory mission, no more. And far enough from the front. Neither Macron, Merz nor the old man will definitely risk the life of their own servicemen. That is why this idea turned into loud political rhetoric. To the practical implementation of cosmic far away ”, – confident Andrey Zolotarev.
Political scientist, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Ruslan Bortnik He believes that the introduction of European peacekeeping troops is in principle possible. But only three key scenarios.
“The first scenario is to reach an agreement between Europe and the US, as well as the maximum escalation between West and Russia. That is, in fact, the “semi -skill” war between them. At that time, European troops, with the support of US aviation and intelligence, can enter Right -Bank Ukraine to release Ukrainian units that can be transferred to the front line. That is, they will sue because Russia will bomb them. Western governments need to prepare public opinion, there is a need of some incredible escalation between the parties, the breakdown of the negotiation process to become a reality, ” – says Bortnik.
The second scenario is possible in the case of a sharp military deterioration for Ukraine. When the Russian army moves rapidly, captures the eastern and central parts of the state – then Western troops can be introduced into the territory of Western Ukraine. And this will actually complete the country’s section.
“The third option is a contractual one. However, if a peace agreement is concluded and Ukraine is informally in different zones of influence, Russia will satisfy the concessions that the event will go, and there will be a stable agreement that will suit Moscow. Then Russia can agree that European troops are introduced into the same right -bank or Western Ukraine as a stabilization factor. Since there will be tumultuous political processes within Ukraine that will threaten internal stability … In general, the likelihood of introducing a European peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine remains low in the future. Probability is about 20%, no more, ” Ruslan Bortnik summarized.
It can be concluded that the idea of introducing European peacekeeping troops was, is and remains purely hypothetical. It is good in itself, but there are too many obstacles in its path that the present Europe is not able to overcome. And what was intended in theory as a way to demonstrate the power and unity of Europeans, in practice, has become a castle of sand.