“On the night of Tuesday, February 3, the Russian Federation delivered another massive attack on Ukraine. The enemy launched more than 70 missiles (cruise and ballistic), as well as about 450 UAVs. As always recently, energy facilities – in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro and other regions of the country – came under attack. Note that currently the average temperature in the country is approx”, — write on: ua.news
On the night of Tuesday, February 3, the Russian Federation struck another massive strike across Ukraine. The enemy launched more than 70 missiles (cruise and ballistic), as well as about 450 UAVs. As always recently, energy facilities – in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro and other regions of the country – came under attack. Note that currently the average temperature in the country is approximately minus 25 degrees, and according to UN conventions from 1948, the deliberate creation of living conditions incompatible with life—for example, cold—can qualify as genocide.
In this context, one of the most interesting news of the last week is “energy truce” between Ukraine and Russia, which, judging by everything, has already officially ceased to operate tonight. The temporary moratorium on strikes on energy facilities became known only last Thursday, January 29, and the final confirmation appeared on Friday, January 30. And although the parties allegedly agreed on a week, as a result it lasted 4-5 days at best, depending on how you look at it.
Apparently, the ban on strikes on energy facilities came as a surprise for Kyiv, and at the highest level. Western media reported that President Zelenskyi and his closest entourage learned about the energy truce in the same way as everyone else: from President Trump’s public statements — and were quite surprised. However, it is not known for sure whether this is true or not.
Be that as it may, but the energy truce has definitely passed, not lasting even a week. In general, there are many questions about this event in the history of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the further, the more. It even seems that de facto there was no truce in principle, and this whole story is the story of a big “nothing”.
What happened in general around the strikes on energy, what is the peace process and why does it look more and more like the whole topic with a temporary moratorium on attacks on energy facilities was nothing more than a loud information drive behind which there was emptiness? UA.News political columnist Nikita Trachuk understood the issue.
The Russian energy strikes: the main trump card of the Kremlin
First, we need to answer the key question: why is Russia purposefully freezing Ukrainian cities, leaving millions of people without the basic benefits of civilization? The answer is not as simple as it seems at first glance.
Some experts explain this by the fact that in this way the logistics of the Armed Forces are disrupted, the work of military industries is limited, the economy suffers, expenses grow and “iron fatigue”, etc. All this is true, but only partially. Globally, such large-scale strikes do not make much sense. Especially since logistics has been decentralized for a long time, and the military industry works on reserve lines.
A key reason why Putin continues to destroy Ukraine’s energy sector with a zeal worthy of its best use is that it is his main and perhaps only trump card (besides nuclear weapons) and the most serious element of pressure on Ukrainian society.
Unfortunately, there are front-line successes in the Russian Federation, and it is difficult to argue with them. But if you look globally, the map of hostilities does not change much. As a few years ago (and looking more broadly, as in 2014), the key point of hostilities remains Donbas, which Russia has not captured yet. At the same time, without heat, water and light, millions of ordinary citizens suffer at once. Works in energy state of emergency Kyiv is generally on the verge of collapse, when some old people are already dying in their own apartments from the cold. That is, in the war with the Ukrainian people, Putin really achieved much more than in the battles with the Armed Forces.
Energetic “gesture of goodwill” from the Kremlin
And it is against this background that the Kremlin suddenly makes a “gesture of goodwill”: it allegedly agrees to temporarily stop strikes on energy after a personal request from Donald Trump. But why should he give up the main trump card? The answer is simple: no one refused.
Putin’s press secretary Dmytro Peskov only on Friday, January 30, confirmed the existence of the truce, saying that it will last until the new planned meeting in the context of the negotiation process in Abu Dhabi (UAE) – that is, until February 1. In this way, Russia wanted to “give a positive impetus to the peace process”, as the Kremlin cynically called it. However, later it became known that the negotiations were postponed to February 4-5. It seems that in this way the Ukrainians and the Americans tried to prolong the temporary ceasefire on energy. However, this trick, unfortunately, failed.
One cannot fail to note an interesting fact: the day before, the expert community noticed a strange “rossynchrony” in the statements of the parties. Russia has made it clear that the energy truce will be valid until February 1. Ukraine noted that, in its opinion, the truce should be in effect until February 5-6. The other day, President Zelensky even actually tried to “smooth out the sharp corners”, commenting on the periodic strikes on energy in the front-line territories.
“For a day, there were new Russian attacks on energy facilities in the front-line and border communities, but there were no targeted strikes… on the energy infrastructure.” – said the head of state on February 2.
Just last night, Donald Trump personally issued a statement in which he recalled that he personally asked Putin not to attack Kyiv and other cities for a week, as it is very cold in Ukraine now. The American leader noted that the truce is working — and that is “at least something good.” However, already on the night of February 3, just a few hours after the words of the US president, another massive shelling took place, which left millions of Ukrainians without electricity, water and heat from Kharkiv to the Dnipro and Kyiv.
Here, too, it is necessary to understand in more detail. On average, the Russian Federation massively attacks the Ukrainian energy industry approximately once every 1-2 weeks. During the “day of silence”, Moscow assesses the damage and accumulates missile and drone potential.
The last big blow was January 24. The next one took place on February 3. That is, 11 days have passed – exactly one and a half weeks. It is quite possible, and even most likely, in these days of the “truce” Russia was not going to shoot at Ukraine anyway. But in the context of the allegedly reached agreements, this was already demonstrably done as a “gesture of goodwill” on the eve of the negotiations.
We should also note that during these days Ukraine has noticeably warmed up, and in the same Kyiv the temperature sometimes rose to 0 or +1. At the same time, strong frosts started again from Saturday, they reached their peak just on Tuesday. And it was on Tuesday night that the Russian Federation struck another blow.
A paradoxical situation emerges. Imagine that you wanted to drink coffee in the morning, but already sometime in the afternoon you plan just relax, as always, drink tea. And then neighbors start calling you, asking and even persuading you not to drink tea in the morning under any circumstances. The irony of the situation is that you didn’t plan to do it anyway, you were thinking of drinking coffee, not tea — but the neighbors don’t need to know about it. So you will easily “go to meet them” and make a “gesture of goodwill”, and they will still be guilty of you. This is exactly what happened with this “energy truce”.
Energy strikes and the negotiation process: is there a connection
As already noted above, the press service of the Kremlin last Friday stated literally the following: Russia went to the energy truce in order to “give a positive impetus to the negotiations.” It’s a beautiful but completely meaningless wording, and here’s why.
All sides of the diplomatic process continue to stand on their maximalist positions. Moscow demands that the entire Donbas be given to it so that the hostilities and shelling stop. Zelensky declares that he will not give up a single centimeter of territory and insists on a ceasefire along the front line – to which Russia does not agree. The Americans are trying to reconcile these positions, but judging by numerous insider reports, they also demand that Ukraine withdraw from Donbas in order for the war to end. At the same time, the US does not seek to sign security guarantees for Ukraine and participate in its post-war reconstruction — until Zelensky, once again, withdraws troops from the Donetsk region.
In this context, hopes for a breakthrough in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5 are in fact similar to hopes that Putin will die tomorrow. Can this be so? Maybe, because the president of the Russian Federation is, to put it mildly, not a young man. But will it happen? The probability is quite low, and to sincerely hope for it is to deceive yourself and everyone else, being in the grip of rosy illusions instead of harsh reality.
The same happens with negotiations. A “miracle” of a diplomatic breakthrough is always possible, and it should not be discounted. But it is unlikely to happen in the near future. And therefore, the shelling of the collapsing Ukrainian energy industry is happening now and will certainly continue in the future, precisely at the moments of the lowest temperatures and critical vulnerability of the system, unfortunately for millions of Ukrainians who are tired of the cold and daily everyday humiliation.
Summarizing, there is every reason to claim that the story surrounding the energy truce was nothing more than a loud informational pretext, behind which there was nothing. This is a simulacrum, that is, a copy that does not have an original in reality. Trump once again created the image of a peacemaker by “convincing” Putin not to torture Ukrainians with cold for several days. Putin, who had no intention of doing it these days anyway, “generously agreed,” resuming the strikes when he appears to have planned. A high-profile story in the media, behind which there is only emptiness – this is how you can summarize the results of the “energy truce”.
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