“In the second half of May, the currency market of Ukraine will gradually revive, but until the 20th, the balance between supply and demand will remain – the period of tax payments continues. The dollar exchange rate is likely to remain within 41.25-41.65 UAH, and the euro will depend on global dynamics. Despite the increase in interest in alternative assets, the dollar continues to dominate as a reserve currency. Impact on the market”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
In the second half of May, the currency market of Ukraine will gradually revive, but until the 20th, the balance between supply and demand will remain – the period of tax payments continues. The dollar exchange rate is likely to remain within 41.25-41.65 UAH, and the euro will depend on global dynamics. Despite the increase in interest in alternative assets, the dollar continues to dominate as a reserve currency. The impact on the market will also have events on the front.
This assessment was given by the Head of the Treasury Department of one of the Ukrainian banks Taras Lesovy invest News.
Market situation
As expected, the second half of May will bring a gradual revival to the currency market. However, by May 20, demand and demand will be the same (the period of tax payments is ongoing, which reduces interest in the foreign exchange market). At the same time, the role of the National Bank will remain noticeable. In terms of “managed flexibility”, the regulator will balance supply and demand through currency interventions, the volume of which will probably be left within $ 600-800 million per day – the usual level of recent months.
In the coming days, the market is unlikely to surprise non -standard dynamics: the course movements will be moderate in both sides, and the difference between the interbank and cash markets will be maintained on minimal marks. The basic scenario involves maintaining the official course in the range of 41.25-41.65 UAH per dollar.
With regard to the euro, the global behavior of the couple dollar/euro remains, the dynamics of which are traditionally difficult for accurate forecasts. At this point, it is expected that the euro will fluctuate within $ 1.13-15 per unit.
The main expression of the foreign exchange market from May 12 to 18:
- Currency changes: 41,25-41.65 UAH / $ and 45-48 UAH / € (on the interbank) and 41.2-41.6 UAH / $ and 45-48 UAH / € (in the cash market).
- Daily exchange rate changes: up to UAH 0.05-0.15 (interbank), up to UAH 0.1-0.2 (combank), up to 0.3 UAH (exchange offices).
- The difference between buying and sales courses: up to 0.15 UAH for $ 1, up to 0.2 UAH for € 1 (interbank), up to UAH 0.5-0.6 per $ 1, up to 0.8-1 UAH per € 1 (combank), up to 0.6-1 UAH per $ 1, up to 1-1.3 UAH per € 1 (exchange points).
- The difference in cash market rates: 0.2-0.3 UAH for $ 1, 0.3-0.5 for € 1 (combank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, 0.5-0.7 for € 1 (exchange offices).
- The difference between sales in the cash market: 0,1-0.2 UAH for $ 1, 0.2-0.3 UAH for € 1 (combank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, up to 0.5 UAH for € 1 (exchange offices).
- Depending on the currency, the average difference between the exchange rate and cash market – 0 UAH.
The average weekly course deviations-up to 1-1.5% of the initial course of the week.
We will remind that the dollar exchange rate in the exchange offices of Ukraine on May 12 increased slightly. The only European currency continues to become cheaper.
Currency demand increased in mid -February 2025. The National Bank has increased sales from reserves to cover the structural deficit of currency and increased the dollar.
Also, the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has decided to raise the discount rate from 14.5% to 15.5% per annum, starting on March 7.
