“This week, the currency market is expected to preserve the controlled dynamics of the course, despite the available fluctuations in individual economic indicators. Taras Lesovy, Head of the Treasury Department of one of the Ukrainian banks in a comment to Invest News, told about expectations in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine. The expert forecast this week is the situation in the foreign exchange market will depend on several key factors. First of all, the process of gradual”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
That The week in the foreign exchange market is expected to preserve the controlled dynamics of the course, despite the available fluctuations in individual economic indicators.
Taras Lesovy, Head of the Treasury Department of one of the Ukrainian banks in a commentary, told about expectations in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine in a comment Invest News.
Expert forecast
This week, the situation in the foreign exchange market will depend on several key factors. First of all, the process of gradual reduction of the consumer price index is expected. This weakens the pressure on the foreign exchange market and promotes the stability of the course.
The second factor is the ratio of supply and demand for the dollar. Demand is somewhat exceeding supply (by 5-7%), but it does not create an imbalance. The National Bank will continue to smooth out the difference through interventions. It is estimated that the volume of such interventions in mid -June will not exceed $ 600-800 million per week, which is in line with the current balance policy.
The third point is the absence of significant changes in the ratio of the dollar to euro. Global bidding does not indicate serious shifts, so it is expected that the rate will remain in the range of $ 1.12–1.15 per euro.
The fourth factor is to maintain the approximation between cash and non -cash market segments. This situation has been observed for almost two months and is a confirmation that the National Bank’s strategy to reduce the difference between courses works.
And finally, the “managed flexibility” mode will remain unchanged. It provides controlled fluctuations and reduces the risk of sharp changes. Therefore, only minor deviations are expected that do not go beyond the usual fluctuations between purchases and selling courses. Let me remind you that in May there was an inflation peak – 15.9% in the annual dimension and 1.3% of growth compared to May. In the future, inflationary pressure is expected. And it is expected that despite the inflationary climax, the dollar will remain within the established corridors.
The main expression of the foreign exchange market from 16 to 22 June:
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Currency changes corridors: 41.6-41.9 UAH / $ and 45.5-47.5 UAH / € (on the interbank) and 41.6-41.8 UAH / $ and 45.5-47.5 UAH / € (in the cash market).
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Daily course changes: to 0.05-0.15 UAH (interbank), to 0.1-0.2 UAH (Kombank), to 0.3 UAH (exchange offices).
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The difference between buying and selling courses: up to 0.15 UAH for $ 1, up to 0.2 UAH per € 1 (interbank), up to 0.5-0.6 UAH per $ 1, up to 0.8-1 UAH per € 1 (Kombank), up to 0.6-1 UAH per $ 1, up to 1-1.3 UAH per € 1 (exchange offices).
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Difference of buying on cash market: 0.2-0.3 UAH for $ 1, 0.3-0.5 for € 1 (Kombank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, 0.5-0.7 for € 1 (exchange offices).
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Difference of sales on cash market: 0.1-0.2 UAH for $ 1, 0.2-0.3 UAH for € 1 (Kombank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, up to 0.5 UAH for € 1 (exchange offices).
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Depending on the currency, the average difference between interbank and cash market rates – 0 UAH.
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Average weekly course deviations – to 1-1.5% from the initial course of the week.
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We will remind that on June 16, the National Bank of Ukraine reduced the official rates of the main currencies. The US dollar cheaped the cost of 4 pennies, and the euro – at once by 39 cents.
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After the growth period, world prices for gold began to decline. It happened against the backdrop of investors’ evaluation of the consequences of escalation between Israel and Iran, as well as on the eve of the Great Seven leaders.
