“How will the Russians change the tactics of shelling after the loss of part of the strategic aviation? Why is there no reason to claim that the “front can be sprinkled” and what are such statements reminded in May 2024? What happens in Sumy and Pokrovsky directions and has the concept of the offensive of the Russians changed in three years? Michael Samus told about these and other important aspects of war for ua.news”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Russia is struck constantly. They are constantly complex, certain components are constantly changing: more ballistics, more “shahas”, more winged air rockets, maritime base, and more. I do not see any special feature here.
Indeed, you can pull up information that there was less Tu-95 sides, but it is obvious. Because they have become smaller, they are destroyed. And so, in principle, the same approach, an effort to overload our air defense.
Concerning the statements in the media about the so -called revenge. When the media talk about some “revenge”, they play the order of the day, which Russia is imposed on us. Because Donald Trump spoke from Putin’s words about revenge.
Note that on March 11, we offered to stop the fire. If the Russians stopped fire, they would retain their 41 strategic bombing aircraft. But they did not agree, so they lost the planes, lost the resistance of the Crimean bridge, they have lost a lot. And it is logical.
About the Wide Web surgery and asymmetrical blows on the enemy
The armed struggle is art. Every second, the combat sides are trying to create new approaches to the destruction of the enemy. In turn, each party tries to adapt to the decisions made by the enemy. That is, we try to beat asymmetrically. The Russians try to beat massively. And we have been doing this since 2014. It is an asymmetric war, a new generation war, new technologies.
Therefore, the spider web special operation is not a new stage, it is a continuation of Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine. That’s all. This is just another method, another approach.
Just like the Kursk operation. It is a completely asymmetric work of the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian defense forces in terms of Russia’s confrontation. We cannot symmetrically compete with the number of personnel or resources. They beat civilians, throw their soldiers on the meat, because they have a lot. And we beat asymmetrically.
We have a intelligence service that destroyed 41 strategic combat aircraft aircraft. This has never been. I will just remind you that no strategic bombing aircraft aircraft has been destroyed since their creation. The only case is when the Ukrainian air defense, again, was beaten in Georgia in 2008 by TU-22M3. It was the first case. There, too, Ukrainians participated. The second case is a spider web operation.
At least, there was no such mass liquidation. Americans, for example, have never been destroyed by any strategic bomber. The Russians, by the way, have never destroyed any strategic bomber. And we destroyed. This is not a new stage, it is just Ukraine constantly using new approaches.
About the destruction of enemy aviation and the prospects for the protection of the Ukrainian sky
Russia causes massive blows not only from aviation. Ballistic missiles, Shahda is not aviation. Calibers are a marine component. Aviation is only X-101 missiles. In my opinion, X-101 will be less used.
Now the emphasis will be more on Baltic Studies and Shahda. Sometimes – “calibers”. Because in the sea the Russians also will not unfold, because they can get a sea drone to board the ship. Therefore, they are not very trying to part with “caliber”.
To counteract, if we talk about the protection of the sky, everything is simple: we will build air defense and we build with the help of our partners, independently and in other formats. There is no other way out. And to Europe, the air defense system and about we need to build with us.
Concerning the opposition of Shahanedam. It is very promising to create and produce drones-interceptors. And we have drones-interceptors that destroy Russian reconnaissance drones, as well as drones-interceptors who destroy the Shahanedov. This direction is quite promising. Although, of course, Shahmed protection should be comprehensive: mobile groups, missiles, artillery and more.
Similar to ballistics. We know that Ukraine already has ballistic missiles. It was officially stated that we are accelerating these programs. It is necessary that we have a scaling of production of ballistic missiles to be brought to a level when Russian “Iskanders” will not be able to approach closer than 300 km to our border. And they did not arrogant and went up to 40 km.
That is, those launchers that were amazed on June 5 in the Bryansk region approached 40 km to our border. Therefore, they had to be destroyed. If we begin to use our ballistic missiles massively, for example, 500 km, it would be worthwhile to make such a forbidden area for Russian “sparkards” kilometers 300 from our border. In this case, the threat will really decrease.
If the Russians are unable to use their balloistics, air base missiles, as their resources are dramatically reduced due to the loss of 41 aircraft. They will also not be able to freely use the maritime component because Ukrainian drones and missiles are holding the Black Sea Fleet under fire control. Then they will remain “Shahda”. Again, you can also fight them effectively. And we can really minimize the threats that Russia terrorizes us.
About the situation on the front and the offensive campaign of the Russians
Too many information injection of the situation on the front. The Russians put a lot in the information and psychological apparatus. For example, a constant firing of Sumy is designed to create the illusion that the Russians will go to the city and start street fighting. This is absolutely none.
The dynamics that could be talked about – the front was fell, everything is bad – too – there is no such thing. Please note that a year ago, exactly the same publications were. Similarly, it was said that Kharkiv was already occupied, Pokrovsk had already fallen. I will remind it was May 2024. Then the same operation was in the Vovchansk direction (Kharkiv region).
The enemy also went into 7-8 km of territory, and there was a depressing situation that everything seemed to be a front. I believe that the Sumy direction will be a similar situation. The Russians have come now, but they will have a stupor. The forces of Ukraine’s defense were actually stopped.
The pressure on them is still there, but in my opinion, the enemy’s actions will be more and more inhibited. And the Russians will remain in their pockets in which they went into. It is 7-8, perhaps 10 km deep. There, their promotion will stop and stagnate.
What a stack The Pokrovsky direction is, of course, the forces are larger, and their intentions are most decisive. That is, if we talk about a summer campaign, then the occupation of the most Donetsk region is included in the main task of the Armed Forces of Russia. Not Sumy region, of course, is not Zaporizhzhya – they will do nothing serious. But to try to break the front is what they wanted to do in 2024, when they just attacked the year, but it did not happen. Now the enemy is doing the same.
In fact, if you look conceptually and doctrinal, the Russians have not changed anything from last year. In addition to the fact that they may have better drones, especially on the fiber. This gives some benefits to the pressure on our logistics, the second echelon and so on.
That is, doctrinal, in conceptual terms, the Russians act in the same way. Their main method is massive attacks in small groups: “meat”, in fact without armored vehicles, trying to sip our defense.
Instead, I expect the effect, in particular, from new assignments in the command. That is, General Michael Dropaty will now devote himself to the front, will be engaged in the management of a defense operation. Let me remind you that the formation of buildings is now. That is, the drapie will still be responsible for the advancement of new buildings on the front, which is very important.
The same expectations on Magyara (Robert Brody), who became the commander of the forces of unmanned systems. He will also be able to integrate the “drone line” into the work of unmanned systems, and on the contrary-the forces of unmanned systems will work more, in particular at operative-tactical levels, not only by “DIP strikes”. That is, in fact, I do not see that Russia has a chance to break the front.
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