The prospect of new candidates for European Union membership has emerged, potentially complicating Ukraine’s aspirations for accession. Economically stable nations, notably Iceland and Norway, are reconsidering their positions regarding EU membership in light of geopolitical shifts.
Following Russia’s extensive military actions in Ukraine and growing uncertainties surrounding U.S. reliability, these countries are reassessing their options. EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, noted that membership in the EU has historically provided stability and prosperity, suggesting that non-member states are increasingly aware of the security benefits that EU inclusion can offer.
Sources indicate that the political landscape has shifted significantly since the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025. A Norwegian official remarked, “Now is not the best time to act alone; Trump is changing everything.” This sentiment reflects a broader concern among European nations about their security arrangements.
Iceland appears poised to be the first to renew discussions on EU membership, having accelerated preparations for a referendum on the matter. The interest from wealthier nations is seen as more appealing compared to the prospect of admitting economically disadvantaged countries from Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, and Montenegro.
Financial considerations are a key factor for existing EU members, who may find it challenging to justify the inclusion of poorer nations. The article notes that current members could receive a smaller share of EU funds, complicating the argument for expansion.
Political risks also weigh heavily on the minds of EU governments. Concerns about potential instability in new member states have led to hesitance in accepting countries with less established democratic institutions. A diplomat expressed apprehension about repeating past experiences with nations like Hungary and Slovakia, fearing that new members could introduce similar challenges.
In contrast, nations with robust democratic frameworks, such as Norway and Iceland, are viewed as more suitable candidates for swift accession. A representative from the EU stated, “Certainly, it would be easier for Iceland or Norway to join. They are already approximately 80 percent aligned with EU laws in their legal systems. If they choose to pursue membership, it could happen quite quickly.”
Trump’s administration has repeatedly questioned the U.S.’s commitment to its allies, prompting countries that historically relied on NATO for security to seek alternative arrangements. The EU treaty includes a mutual defense clause, similar to NATO’s Article 5, which may appeal to nations considering membership.
Norway previously applied for EU membership in 1992 but rejected it in a subsequent referendum. Despite a continued majority against membership, support has grown in recent months, partly fueled by public sentiment following Trump’s criticisms of Norway over the Nobel Peace Prize.
Iceland’s application for EU membership, initially submitted in 2009 amid a financial crisis, was frozen in 2013 due to disputes over fishing policies and economic conditions before being formally withdrawn in 2015.
While Icelandic and Norwegian citizens may ultimately decide against EU membership, especially if the U.S. administration adopts a less aggressive stance, there is a possibility that countries like Montenegro and Ukraine could finalize their negotiations before any decision from Oslo or Reykjavik.
Moreover, nations that have consistently blocked EU expansion since Croatia’s accession in 2013 may continue to veto new entrants. Although no final decisions have been made, the increasing sentiment in Europe is that, amid pressures from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, acting independently poses significant risks.
The reconsideration of EU membership by economically stable countries like Iceland and Norway could hinder Ukraine's accession efforts. As geopolitical dynamics shift, existing EU members weigh the implications of admitting new candidates against financial and political risks.