Recent statements from Russian officials indicate that Russia is unlikely to settle for mere territorial concessions in ongoing peace negotiations. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia remains committed to its original military objectives, which include undermining NATO as an alliance.
On February 17, the Russian embassy in Belgium emphasized that Russia would require NATO to legally enshrine a non-expansion clause in accordance with a draft treaty proposed in December 2021. The ISW noted that this statement referenced ultimatums issued to the United States and NATO prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These ultimatums demand that NATO cease deployment of forces or weapon systems in member states that joined the alliance after 1997.
Furthermore, the demands aim to compel the West to abandon its open-door policy, halt eastward expansion, and discontinue partnerships with Eastern European nations, particularly Ukraine. The ISW highlighted that these requirements are integral to Russia’s initial military objectives. The embassy’s reiteration of these demands amid current negotiations suggests that Russia will not accept any agreement that does not fully address its conditions regarding Ukraine, NATO, and the United States, even if some territorial claims are met.
Analysts at the ISW pointed out that Kremlin officials consistently reaffirm their commitment to achieving these initial military goals through either military or diplomatic means, showing no willingness to compromise on these objectives for the sake of peace in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the next round of trilateral talks involving the U.S. and Russia regarding the cessation of hostilities will take place in Switzerland. He made this statement during an interview with Piers Morgan, published on YouTube on February 18. While he did not provide a specific date for the negotiations, he underscored the importance of holding talks in Europe.
Following earlier discussions in Geneva on February 17 and 18, Zelensky noted that progress was observed in military aspects, though sensitive political issues remain unresolved. He remarked, “While I heard progress in military terms, the political dialogue revealed differing positions. The negotiations were challenging, but we agreed to continue discussions.” Details of the talks will be disclosed upon the delegation’s return to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that it is “too early” to assess the outcomes of the negotiations. As of now, there have been no public comments from U.S. officials regarding the discussions.
In a statement to Russian state media after the official talks concluded, chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky described the discussions as “difficult but businesslike,” indicating that further meetings are anticipated.
Steve Witkoff, the chief U.S. envoy in Geneva, commented that significant progress had been made, with both sides agreeing to provide updated information to their respective leaders and continue working towards an agreement.
Details of the conversations remain undisclosed.
The Geneva talks, which spanned two days, represent the third round of trilateral meetings held over the past month. The discussions focused on two major obstacles to ending Russia’s war against Ukraine: territorial claims and security guarantees.
These meetings took place just a week before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, which has resulted in nearly two million casualties on both sides. Despite U.S. mediation efforts to cease hostilities, Russia has shown no inclination to retreat from its stringent demands, including Ukraine’s relinquishment of territories in the Donbas region.
In contrast, Ukraine insists on robust security guarantees from the U.S. and European allies to protect against future Russian aggression.
Russian officials reaffirm their commitment to original military objectives, complicating ongoing peace negotiations with Ukraine and NATO. Despite some progress in military discussions, significant political issues remain unresolved, with both sides holding firm to their demands.