The Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service has designated Russia as the most significant threat to national and NATO security. In its annual report released on February 17, the agency cautioned that Moscow’s increasingly risky behavior could lead to dangerous escalations.
The report characterizes the threat from Russia as “serious and concrete,” describing Moscow’s actions as “opportunistic and aggressive.” It cites examples of hostile activities, including airspace violations, sabotage, and cyber operations in the Baltic Sea region. Russia is outlined as the “main threat to Sweden and NATO.”
This assessment follows a similar conclusion from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, which, in its own annual review, labeled Russia as “dangerous despite its incompetence.” However, the Estonian report advised against panic, noting no indications of an imminent attack on Estonia or NATO, especially in light of bolstered European defenses.
A NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity during a briefing attended by Politico, confirmed this evaluation. The official emphasized that the alliance’s security is underpinned by confidence in Article 5 and the commitment of NATO members to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP.
Both the Estonian report and the NATO representative highlighted that Russia has significantly ramped up its artillery production. This suggests that Moscow will continue to pose a threat even if peace is achieved in Ukraine.
Estonian intelligence estimates indicate that Russia’s production of shells and other artillery has increased seventeenfold since the onset of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The NATO official remarked, “You can’t just switch this off on the day the war ends,” adding that in certain areas, Russia may emerge as a stronger military force than it was at the beginning of the conflict.
Swedish intelligence has identified Russia as the primary security threat to Sweden and NATO, citing aggressive actions and increased military production. This assessment aligns with findings from Estonia's intelligence services, which also warn of Russia's capabilities despite its challenges.
Source: Politico