“Russia’s state budget deficit could nearly triple the official forecast by the end of 2026 due to a reduction in oil purchases by India, an increase in discounts on raw materials and a rise in war spending.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
Source: Reuters with reference to the internal calculations of economists of the analytical center associated with the government of the Russian Federation
Details: According to forecasts, Russia’s energy revenues in 2026 may be 18% lower than planned. This will push the deficit to 3.5-4.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), while the government expected a figure of 1.6%.
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Total budget revenues are expected to decline by 6% to 37.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, expenditures may exceed the planned figures by 4.1–8.4%.
The main factors of pressure on the Russian economy are called sanctions, high interest rates and labor shortage. An additional blow was the strengthening of the ruble last year, as oil taxes are calculated in dollars but paid in Russian currency.
Currently, the government of the Russian Federation has 4.1 trillion rubles of fiscal reserves. However, analysts of “Alfa-Invest” and VTB Bank warn that at the current rates of income decline, these reserves may be exhausted within the year.
A Reuters interlocutor close to the Russian government emphasized that the Kremlin’s plans to reduce military spending are “unrealistic.”
What preceded:
- Previously, Reuters, citing data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, reported that the oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget in January 2026 fell to the lowest level from July 2020 to 393.3 billion rubles.
- Russian oilmen continue increase oil discounts for India to sell batches that refineries have begun to abandon due to sanctions from the administration of US President Donald Trump. Individual batches fell to $22-25 per barrel.