“On-chain data points to fading demand and tighter liquidity, while prediction markets show little expectation of near-term rate cuts.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Bitcoin is entering the Asian trading day with on-chain data flashing full bear-market signals, as prices hover in the mid-$70,000s and global equity markets continue to search for direction.
CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical, with its Bull Score Index sitting at zero while bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The report argues that the market is no longer digesting gains but operating with a thinner buyer base and tightening liquidity.
Glassnode data reinforces that picture, pointing to weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum where selling pressure is not being met with sustained absorption. In effect, the issue is less panic than participation.
Institutional flows underline the shift. US spot bitcoin ETFs, which were net accumulators at this time last year, have flipped into net sellers, creating a year-over-year demand gap measured in tens of thousands of bitcoins.
At the same time, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since October, signaling that US investors are not meaningfully stepping in despite lower prices. Historically, sustained bull phases have coincided with strong US spot demand. That engine is currently idling.
Liquidity conditions are also tightening beneath the surface. Stablecoin expansion, which typically fuels risk appetite and trading activity, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023.
(CryptoQuant)
Longer-term apparent demand growth has likewise collapsed from last year’s highs, suggesting this is not merely leverage being flushed but participation itself fading. Technically, bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with on-chain valuation bands clustering major support in the $70,000 to $60,000 corridor.
Overlaying this is a macro backdrop where bitcoin is increasingly behaving like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets show traders still leaning heavily toward no change at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting, with only modest expectations for a June rate cut. That hesitancy limits the prospect of near-term liquidity relief.
The political narrative is further complicated by politics. President Donald Trump recently spoke to the press about his Fed nominee Kevin Warsh and said during an interview with NBC News a Fed chair who wanted to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” a remark that tempers earlier optimism about central bank independence.
For Asia, the result is a market defined less by shock than by absence, where bounces remain possible, but conviction remains thin.
Market MovementBTC: Bitcoin drifted lower into the mid $70,000s after briefly testing support, with rebounds fading quickly as spot demand remained thin and tech stocks remained under pressure.
ETH: Ether hovered just above the low $2,000s, struggling to build momentum as broader risk sentiment softened and flows remained muted across major exchanges.
Golden: Gold rebounded toward the $5,000 to $5,100 range, extending a volatile recovery driven by safe-haven buying after US–Iran tensions flared and softer private payroll data offset mixed economic signals while traders reassessed the Fed outlook under Trump’s new chair pick.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower by roughly 0.3% as chip and tech heavyweights tracked Wall Street’s sell-off, though broader Japanese equities remained relatively resilient compared with regional peers.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Binance denies issuing legal threats over insolvency allegations (The Block)
- Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani steps down after nearly a decade to pursue other areas of tech (CoinDesk)