“NBU revises Ukraine’s economic growth forecast for 2026The National Bank of Ukraine has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8% due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure
and electricity shortages. The electricity deficit in 2026 will be at least 6%, which will cost Ukraine 0.4% of GDP growth.
”, — write: unn.ua
DetailsAccording to him, the electricity deficit in 2026 will be at least 6%, although earlier the National Bank predicted a figure of 3%.
Andriy Pyshnyi noted that without taking into account massive Russian attacks on the energy system, GDP growth in 2026 could have reached 2.2%.
Due to the destruction of logistics and a larger-than-expected electricity deficit in recent months, the NBU has slightly lowered its estimate of real GDP growth in 2025.
According to him, energy losses will cost Ukraine at least 0.4% of GDP growth. At the same time, the NBU records a decrease in inflation and expects a moderate level in 2026.
RecallNBU Deputy Governor Serhiy Nikolaichuk predicts Ukraine’s economic growth of 3-3.5% of GDP in 2026-2027, provided the security situation improves. The forecasts are based on private investment, consumption, reduced defense spending, and accelerated economic recovery.