“Most invested bitcoin supply sits above current prices, increasing price vulnerability if key support levels fail.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
That means the majority of capital entered the market at a higher price than BTC trades today. Invested wealth refers to the total value of capital deployed in bitcoin when the coins last moved on the chain. That’s different from the cost basis, which is the average price at which that bitcoin was acquired.
This insight comes from a measure called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). URPD illustrates the price levels at which the existing supply of bitcoin last moved on chain. Each bar represents the amount of bitcoin whose most recent transaction occurred within a specific price range.
The bitcoin price has been constrained between $80,000 and $90,000 since November. URPD highlights how much capital is currently underwater. Tens of billions of dollars sit between $85,000 and $90,000. A price move below $85,000 could intensify selling pressure as investors attempt to limit losses. Long-term holders are already selling at the fastest pace in six months.
Adding to the risk, there is relatively little supply between $70,000 and $80,000. If the $80,000 level fails, last tested in November, a rapid move toward $70,000 becomes more likely.
Looking ahead to February, bitcoin is on track to finish January little changed, without the typical relief rally after seeing three consecutive months of declines. Historically, February has been a strong month, averaging gains of around 13%, according to Coinglass data. Whether history repeats may depend on how the market absorbs the current overhang of underwater supply.
Pudgy Penguins is building a multi-vertical consumer IP platform — combining phygital products, games, NFTs and PENGU to monetize culture at scale.
The ecosystem now spans phygital products (> $13M retail sales and >1M units sold), games and experiences (Pudgy Party surpassed 500k downloads in two weeks), and a widely distributed token (airdropped to 6M+ wallets). While the market is currently pricing Pudgy at a premium relative to traditional IP peers, sustained success depends on execution across retail expansion, gaming adoption and deeper token utility.
View Full Report
Gold and other hard assets are rallying on dollar weakness, but bitcoin is lagging as markets continue to treat it as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset.
- Bitcoin has, unusually, not rallied alongside the slide in the US dollar.
- JPMorgan strategists say the dollar’s weakness is being driven by short-term flows and sentiment, not changes in growth or monetary policy expectations, and they expect the currency to stabilize as the US economy strengthens.
- Because markets do not view the current dollar decline as a lasting macro shift, bitcoin is trading more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset than a reliable dollar hedge, leaving gold and emerging markets as the preferred beneficiaries of dollar diversification.
Read full story