“In 2025, Ukraine’s economy grew, but more slowly than the government had planned. Real GDP added 2.2% instead of the expected almost 3%, but even under such conditions the economy was able to maintain stability. Nataliya Gorshkova, director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting of the Ministry of Economy, noted during the discussion of the Center for Economic Strategy. The economy operated under constant attacks on the energy infrastructure”, — write on: ua.news
In 2025, Ukraine’s economy grew, but more slowly than the government had planned. Real GDP added 2.2% instead of the expected almost 3%, but even under such conditions the economy was able to maintain stability. Director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting of the Ministry of Economy Nataliya notes Gorshkova during the discussion of the Center for Economic Strategy.
The economy operated under conditions of constant attacks on the energy infrastructure, complex logistics and high security risks. Despite this, according to government representatives, the country was able to avoid recession and maintain positive dynamics.
As Nataliya Gorshkova, director of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting of the Ministry of Economy, explained, the actual growth turned out to be lower than initial expectations, but in general, the economy showed resilience again. “We set a forecast of 2.7% and kept it until October, we believed that we had a chance to achieve similar figures. But the attacks on energy infrastructure that we’ve seen on an almost daily basis have forced expectations to be revised down to 2.2-2.3%,” she said during a Center for Economic Strategy discussion.
According to Gorshkova, the key factors of growth generally paid off. Domestic demand remained the main driver of the economy. According to the Ministry of Economy, GDP growth was supported by several sectors. Among them are domestic, primarily retail, trade, construction and manufacturing industries. In the latter, an important role was played by increasing the production of defense products, pharmaceuticals, metallurgy, construction materials and other industrial products.
Also, in 2025, the workload of production facilities increased. According to the State Statistics Service, as of October 1, the highest indicators were recorded in pharmaceutical production, furniture manufacturing, wood processing, food and textile industries.
At the same time, growth rates were negatively affected by several factors at once. Among them are massive Russian missile attacks on power generation facilities and, for the first time in the years of full-scale war, on gas production infrastructure.
Weather conditions also played a role. Because of them, the yield of certain crops, especially oil crops, decreased. At the same time, it was possible to harvest 3% more grain than a year earlier. Logistical difficulties, termination of transit of natural gas by pipeline transport and narrowing of demand, in particular from the agricultural sector, were also attributed to restraining factors.
Separately, the government paid attention to inflation. Expectations were higher — at the level of 9.5–9.9%, but according to the results of December, annual inflation amounted to 8%. “The sharp slowdown in the fourth quarter and overall December surprise was unexpected. We believe that such “ragged” dynamics of inflation during the entire period of the war reflects a high level of uncertainty,” Gorshkova noted. The government emphasizes that even more modest growth during the war shows the ability of the Ukrainian economy to adapt and work despite constant shocks and risks.
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