“Since the beginning of the full-scale war, at least 470,000 conscripted men have left Ukraine legally and have not returned. Another 70,000 crossed the border illegally.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
Source: investigation by NGL.media with reference to data from the border services of Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova
Details: According to NGL.media estimates, in September-November 2025, about 78,000 men aged 18-22 left Ukraine and did not return. The total number of conscripts who left the country since the beginning of the war is much larger.
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Analysts turned to the border services of neighboring states with a request for monthly border crossings by Ukrainian men aged 18-60 for the period from February 24, 2022 to November 2025. DPSU does not publish such detailed statistics.
Investigators note that the data on border crossings does not equate to the number of people. After all, the same person can cross the border many times, and each case is recorded separately. At the same time, impersonal statistics make it possible to estimate the number of men who legally left Ukraine and did not return. If there are fewer people entering the country than leaving Ukraine, the difference indicates the number of people who stayed abroad.
According to the Polish Straż Graniczna, after the start of the full-scale war, about 188,000 Ukrainian men left for Poland and did not return. In Moldova and Romania, the total number of border crossings is lower, but the difference between entries and exits is 10.6% and 13.7%, respectively. The cumulative negative balance of migration through these two countries exceeds 342,000 men.
Slovakia shows a different dynamic. More men return to Ukraine through this border than leave. Researchers attribute this to the fact that some Ukrainians return by this route after leaving through other countries. This trend was maintained throughout the war, with the exception of September 2025, when the difference between entry and exit was 0.5%.
Hungary did not provide detailed statistics. The Central Statistical Office publishes migration data without breakdown by age and border crossing points.
According to Hungarian statistics, in 2022–2024, 5,800 Ukrainian men over the age of 20 entered the country, and 16,700 returned to Ukraine. At the same time, according to the DPSU, during the full-scale war, Ukrainians of both sexes crossed the Ukrainian-Hungarian border in both directions more than 14.4 million times. This is about twice as much as on the border with Slovakia.
According to the minimum estimate, excluding Hungary, the number of conscripted men who legally left Ukraine and did not return is about 470,000 people. This figure does not take into account illegal border crossings.
Eurostat reports that in 2022-2024, about 1.1 million Ukrainian men received temporary protection in EU countries. These statistics also include those who left for the EU before February 24, 2022, but applied for protection after the start of a full-scale war.
Senior researcher of the Center for Economic Strategy Iryna Ippolitova explained to NGL.media that the share of such cases is small. The largest number of Ukrainians arrived in the EU in March 2022, and holders of long-term visas often did not need temporary protection.
According to the DPSU, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian border guards have detained more than 50,000 men during attempts to cross the border illegally. Journalists estimate the number of those who managed to leave illegally at approximately 70,000 people.
Eurodac system data is closed. At the same time, the border services of several neighboring countries informed NGL.media about the detected Ukrainian illegal men.
More than 31,000 such cases were recorded in Romania. In Slovakia – 3951, in Poland – 1203. Hungary and Moldova did not provide data. Taking into account the length of the border, the total number of illegal crossings into these two countries is estimated at 30-35 thousand.
Thus, the number of Ukrainians who crossed the border illegally since the beginning of the war is about 70,000. Together with those who left through official checkpoints, the total number reaches 540,000.
A route through Belarus became a separate direction. Only last year, Ukrainian border guards detained more than 1,400 illegal immigrants in this area. This is four times more than in 2024. Although Ukraine has banned crossing the Ukrainian-Belarusian border since February 2022, according to the State Border Committee of Belarus, as of the middle of last year, 16,000 Ukrainians of both sexes had crossed the border.
After the government’s decision at the end of August 2025 to allow men aged 18-22 to leave freely, migration increased. According to the data of the border services of Poland, Romania and Slovakia, about 78,000 young men of this age group left the country irrevocably in three months. During the same period of the previous year, almost 44,000 boys left for Romania, of which about 27,500 returned. Almost 10,000 left for Slovakia, of which about 8,300 returned. Hungary and Moldova did not provide detailed data.
According to experts, part of the youth may return to Ukraine in the longer term. At the same time, employers are already recording a shortage of personnel, in particular in the service sector and the hotel and restaurant business.
We will remind:
- At the end of August 2025, the government of Ukraine changed the rules for crossing the state border under martial law, allowing men aged 18 to 22 to travel to other countries.
- As reported, more than 5,400 Ukrainians illegally crossed the border with Romania in the first seven months of this year.
- In September 2025, the border service of Poland recorded an increase in the number of young men from Ukraine aged 18 to 22 who were allowed by the government to travel abroad.
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