“Forecasts regarding the return of Ukrainian refugees after the end of the war are becoming more and more restrained. According to Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, if earlier scientists hoped for the return of 50% of citizens, now they consider only 30% to be a realistic indicator. Oleksandr Gladun told about this in a comment to tsn.ua. Demographers identify two crucial factors affecting the demographic future”, — write on: ua.news
Forecasts regarding the return of Ukrainian refugees after the end of the war are becoming more and more restrained. According to Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, if earlier scientists hoped for the return of 50% of citizens, now they consider only 30% .
Oleksandr Gladun told about this in a comment on tsn.ua.
Demographers identify two decisive factors affecting the country’s demographic future. First of all, it is the duration of hostilities: the longer the war lasts, the deeper the integration of Ukrainians into foreign societies through work, education and learning languages becomes. Secondly, these are the conditions for ending the war. The complete liberation of the territories is seen as the maximum incentive for return, while the “frozen conflict” on the front line will be perceived by refugees as a temporary pause before a new attack, which will stop the repatriation process.
Despite the complexity of the situation, even 30% of those who return will form the basis for the restoration of the state. However, scientists warn: without reliable guarantees of long-term peace and security, it will be extremely difficult to count on the mass return of people who have already managed to settle their lives abroad.
State Statistics Service by the end of this year is planning conduct an assessment of the population of Ukraine. But this there will be no census .
Today, Ukraine’s population, including territories under Russian occupation, is just under 36 million, according to officials, compared with about 41 million when the war began. However, these figures are approximate and may be much lower.
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