“The head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation claimed that the Russian troops captured more than 6,300 square kilometers in 2025. Instead, according to ISW’s estimate, about 4,700 have been captured”, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
On December 17, Putin announced that Russian troops had captured Siversk. ISW has received evidence that allows us to estimate that Russian forces have captured about 77% of this Ukrainian city. Gerasimov also said on December 18 that Russian forces had captured Kupyansk (despite mounting evidence that Ukrainian forces had liberated a large part of the city) and were in control of 50% of Kostiantynivka.
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ISW analysts see no evidence or even claims of a Russian advance in Kostyantynivka close to Gerasimov’s figure. The Institute for the Study of War observes evidence that Russian forces captured only 1.6 percent of Kostyantynivka, while maintaining a presence within only 5 percent of the city (either through infiltration missions or assaults).
The ISW report notes that even maximalist claims by Russian pro-war bloggers about the Russian advance are not as extensive as Gerasimov’s claims, as the bloggers claim that Russian forces have captured only about 11% of the city.
Gerasimov also claimed that Russian forces captured more than 6,300 square kilometers in 2025 – slightly more than Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s Dec. 17 claim of 6,000 square kilometers.
ISW estimates that Russian forces captured only about 4,700 square kilometers in 2025, but even Gerasimov’s more exaggerated claim applies to only 1.04% of Ukraine’s total area.
“Gerasimov and Belousov’s exaggerated statements actually demonstrate the slow pace of Russian advance and undermine the Kremlin’s ongoing cognitive warfare efforts to portray Russia’s victory on the battlefield in Ukraine and the collapse of Ukrainian defenses as inevitable. Gerasimov used his briefing for foreign military officials to repeat many of the statements made by Putin and Belousov at the December 17 meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry collegium, likely to spread these Russian narratives to an international audience,” the report said.
On December 17, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that the enemy had increased the group to the number of about 710,000 soldiers in order to conduct a strategic offensive operation.
According to him, Russian troops have been trying to capture Pokrovsk for more than 17 months, but Ukrainian units are holding the defense and intercepting the initiative. Syrskyi also stated that the Ukrainian military controls almost 90% of Kupyansk.