NBU considers "reparation loan" as a baseline scenario, but has a "plan B" in case of delays

For the National Bank of Ukraine, the basic scenario remains the receipt of a reparations loan, which is currently being discussed in the EU, but in case of delays with external assistance, according to the regulator, the government will be able to partially rely on banks, said NBU Deputy Governor Serhiy Nikolaychuk during a briefing on Thursday, writes UNN.

DetailsAs noted by the NBU, financial support will remain the key to Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability.

At the same time, risks associated with the irregularity or insufficiency of external financing remain, if we are talking about 2026-2027. And, of course, we are now very closely following the developments regarding the reparations loan. In fact, for us, its receipt remains our basic scenario for now.

At the same time, according to him, “as we have repeatedly emphasized, the risks regarding external financing are quite significant.”

If these risks materialize due to additional temporary pauses in the receipt of external assistance, in our opinion, the government will be able to partially rely on banks, as it has been in recent years. In our opinion, banks have the potential to somewhat increase their investments in government securities given sufficient liquidity.

According to the NBU, “bank liquidity indicators are high.” “However, the share of high-quality liquid assets has decreased to about one-third of bank assets since the beginning of the year. Further liquidity management will require increased attention, primarily due to the active growth of banks’ loan portfolios. This will be facilitated by banks carrying out the process of assessing the adequacy of internal liquidity (ILAAP),” the NBU statement says.

“In the second half of the year, the economy grew, inflation slowed down, and business and household incomes increased. However, the energy deficit caused by the enemy suppresses economic activity and worsens business and household expectations. Therefore, the economy will slow down further,” the National Bank also noted.