“A sharp market pullback has exposed which BTC-focused public companies can actually execute, and which were never built for volatility.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
A sharp decline in crypto markets and over 40% slump (as of Nov. 27) in the share price of the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, Strategy (MSTR), this year, has led some to question the sustainability of these companies.
Strategy’s steep underperformance relative to bitcoin (down about 2% this year) in recent months may be due to looming index-inclusion risk rather than crypto-market dynamics, according to Wall Street bank JPMorgan. However, the downturn in the share price of MSTR and other bitcoin DATs still raises the question: Is the bitcoin digital asset treasury model broken?
Strategy shares underperformed BTC, falling more than 40% this year (TradingView)
According to Elliot Chun, managing partner at investment bank Architect Partners, it’s the opposite.
“This is the most exciting period for BTC DATs yet because in real time, we are seeing and will see which DATs will be able to successfully maneuver and communicate through this first ‘macro’ price move lower,” Chun said in an interview with CoinDesk.
“We are still so early, as an industry, we haven’t even properly categorized the DAT category yet, so it’s impossible to say if the model is broken,” he added.
More than 700% returnChun breaks the bitcoin DAT landscape into four broad groups now unfolding in real time.
“Pure play” DATs which direct nearly all corporate resources toward maximizing a bitcoin-denominated outcome, often BTC per share. “Producing” DATs that actually generate bitcoin through operations like mining. “Hybrid” DATs that treat the crypto as a primary pillar but still run non-BTC initiatives, and “participating” DATs that simply hold the digital asset on their balance sheet and leverage it as a capital markets tool.
As these categories experiment publicly, failures are inevitable, but according to Chun, that’s standard for any emerging corporate or capital-markets model.
What all bitcoin DATs must ultimately solve, Chun notes, is revenue: how to generate yield or cash flow, whether denominated in BTC or otherwise. And not all will make it.
He expects that within five years, half of today’s pure play, producing and hybrid DATs will disappear through failure, delisting, mergers or acquisitions.
About 35% will survive without outperforming, 10% will beat major market indices like the S&P 500, and the top 5% could challenge the Magnificent Seven’s decade-long run, returning more than 700% between 2025 and 2034, Chun said.
Can these companies withstand a true downturn? It depends on how one defines ‘severe.’ If the recent pullback counts, Chun expects most DATs to make it through. The real test will be deeper macro stress, where operational clarity, treasury discipline and a credible plan will separate survivors from targets.
$1 million bitcoinSo what comes next for this industry? Just like any other industry that rises at breakneck speed during a bull run and starts to crumble during a downturn, it’s consolidation.
The firms blending TradFi discipline with bitcoin-native understanding will craft messages that resonate with investors and position themselves to raise and deploy capital effectively. And those that can’t, will be acquired, often by other DATs, Chun said.
Over the longer term, he expects the strongest performers to become acquisition targets for the world’s largest public companies as the bitcoin price marches toward $1 million and corporate treasuries increasingly view BTC as a strategic, rather than speculative, asset.
Read more: Bitcoin’s $1T Rout Exposes Fragile Market Structure, Deutsche Bank Says
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The company adopted a bitcoin treasury plan by deploying a strategy inspired by Metaplanet, with 66% shareholder approval, to mitigate negative returns from government bonds.
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