“In recent weeks, the regions of the Ukrainian Donbass (Donetsk, Luhansk and adjacent territories), which have been occupied since 2014, were on the verge of an energy collapse. The local “authority” even introduced a state of emergency, because by the evening of November 22, a large part of the population (65%) was left without electricity. Hundreds of transformer substations are disabled, utility services are forced to switch to emergency services”, — write on: ua.news
In recent weeks, the regions of the Ukrainian Donbass (Donetsk, Luhansk and adjacent territories), which have been occupied since 2014, were on the verge of an energy collapse. The local “authority” even introduced a state of emergency, because as of the evening of November 22, a large part of the population (65%) remained without light.
Hundreds of transformer substations are out of order, utilities are forced to switch to emergency power supply schedules, and many settlements spend days in near-total blackout. That is, the same as the Ukrainians on the other side of the contact line.
The reason is the strikes on key generating facilities in the region, namely the Zuyivska and Starobeshivska TPPs. The first attack, which led to a significant blackout, took place on November 13. Then there were two massive strikes on November 18 and 22, respectively.
It is worth noting that Ukraine has practically never carried out targeted strikes on the energy infrastructure in the occupied territories. The infamous “They bombed Donbas for 8 years” are tales of Russian propaganda, not objective reality. But now, as we see, this logic has changed.
Why did Kyiv switch to direct and targeted strikes on the energy system of the occupied Donbass? UA.News political columnist Nikita Trachuk discussed the issue together with experts.
Asymmetric response to energy attacks of the Russian Federation
The change in Ukrainian tactics is directly related to the escalation of Russian shelling of critical infrastructure in the territory controlled by Kyiv. In recent months, attacks on Ukrainian power plants, substations and energy hubs have become regular, causing long blackouts almost throughout the country.
Russia uses energy as a tool of pressure. Even the Ukrainian capital is currently without electricity for an average of 12-16 hours a day. In many central and eastern regions, the situation is just as difficult. And after the recent ones shelling The deficit of the energy system in Western Ukraine reached there as well.
For a long time, Ukraine responded rather restrainedly – at least, it definitely avoided attacks on objects located on its own territory, even temporarily occupied. However, in the conditions of a protracted war, the political and military logic of an asymmetric response arises.
Since it is quite difficult to hit the deep Russian rear in a massive and successful manner, a blackout in Moscow remains a fantasy for now, Kyiv delivered blows to a zone where Russia has serious vulnerabilities. Namely — to the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk region.
Zuyivska and Starobeshivska TPPs are key hubs not only for the domestic electricity supply of Donetsk and the surrounding areas. It is the “backbone” of the entire system, which feeds the local infrastructure, occupation administration, logistics and military industry, integrated with the Russian military industry. Together, these stations collectively deliver 2,500 MW, or 2.5 GW, to the network.
To understand the scope: as of 2014 (!) the total capacity of substations in the entire territory of Donbas constituted 3.7 GW, and the total consumption of the entire region was up to 6.7 GW maximum. That is, with the destruction of these two stations, almost two-thirds of the entire generation of the occupied parts of Donetsk as of today is destroyed.
Along with residential buildings, where ordinary people live, industrial enterprises, repair bases, warehouses, communication centers, boiler houses, filter stations, etc. are also exposed to blackouts. Entire chains that work to support the Russian troops are being disrupted. All this becomes a local disaster for the region.
In addition to purely military logic, from a political point of view the strikes have a certain symbolic meaning. Moscow consistently claims that Donbas is its territory, that “Russia is here forever” and that it is supposedly a Russian region. Kyiv, in turn, demonstrates the opposite: the control of the Russian Federation is not permanent and stable, and the energy security of the region is frankly vulnerable and still depends on the decisions of Ukraine.
The energy of Donbas rests on the shoulders of the Russian Federation
It should be understood that the energy supply in the occupied territories has not been connected with the general Ukrainian energy system for many years. Back in 2017, the networks were redirected, and local TPPs began to work in the mode of individual clusters tied to Russia.
Electricity, coal, repair capacity, logistics and maintenance of equipment — all this now comes not through Kharkiv, Kyiv or Dnipro in Ukraine, but through Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar and other regional dispatch centers of the Russian Federation. Therefore, any attack on the infrastructure of Donbas is no longer perceived as a purely Ukrainian attack on its own system. Today, this is primarily a blow to Russia.
This is a direct challenge to the Kremlin, which has assumed the role of “energy guardian” and operator of the occupied territories. If Moscow is responsible for Donetsk and Luhansk, then responsibility for the blackouts also falls on it. At least, Russia uses the same logic when it attacks Ukraine, as happened on the night of November 25 in Kyiv, as well as in Dnipropetrovsk region, Kharkiv region, Odesa region, Chernihiv region, and Cherkasy region.
For the Russian Federation itself, this situation creates a number of problems, although not critical, but nevertheless. In order to maintain at least a minimum standard of living in the occupied region, mobile power plants, repair crews, and a constant supply of equipment and fuel are needed. But in the conditions of war, these processes become extremely complicated.
Any new strike would set back Russian efforts by weeks or even months. In addition, it is the occupying administrations that will have to explain to local residents why their cities are plunged into darkness.
For example, in the same Donetsk for many years there has been a catastrophic situation with water supply : regular tap water is served according to very strict schedules. Now light has been added to these problems.
For Ukraine, this is also an important element of information confrontation. After all, the question arises: if the Russian Federation cannot stabilize and protect the occupied territories even in a basic, everyday sense, then what can we say about everything else?
Expert opinion
Military expert Oleg Zhdanov notes that the political and informational components play not the least role in such strikes by the Armed Forces. However, above all, the logic is purely military and economic.
“Military units consume electricity. Repair bases, where equipment is serviced, depend on electricity. And traction substations that provide electric traction on railways the one on which military cargo goes? And so on. They all depend on electricity. The entire infrastructure of the occupiers in uncontrolled Donetsk region. This is a very important job. The same military units consume banal water. There is no water without electricity – there is nothing: sewage, personal hygiene, and how to cook food without water?… Strikes on energy facilities in the occupied Donbas only have a certain political significance in the second place. But first of all, there is a purely military-economic logic here.” Oleg Zhdanov is confident.
Moral and ethical issues and the price of military decisions
However, we should not forget that all the above-mentioned logic does not remove some moral and ethical issues from the agenda. Donetsk, Luhansk and surrounding areas are still Ukraine. In addition, both according to Ukrainian legislation and the Constitution, and according to international law.
People who live there remain citizens of Ukraine, no matter what passports they use. During the war, many of them experienced the loss of loved ones, their own homes and, in general, the entire ordinary world.
When Ukraine strikes energy facilities in these territories, it strikes itself purely from a formal point of view. In essence, it destroys the infrastructure that Kyiv will have to rebuild in the future after the potential de-occupation. It is a difficult decision, and although it is made under the pressure of cruel circumstances, it does not make it any easier for anyone.
However, there is another side – the fate of ordinary people. They find themselves in dark apartments, non-working hospitals, without heating, water and communication. They do not make decisions at the level of states or even local “authorities”, do not determine the policy of occupation administrations, do not command the Russian army. But they bear the brunt of the war.
This is the key pain point of modern warfare: what seems justified and understandable at the level of the state, becomes a tragedy at the level of ordinary people. A moral dilemma turns into a brutal reality, and war blurs the lines between “right” and “wrong”, leaving only “expedient” and “inexpedient”. And in these conditions, strikes on energy become only a tool that Ukraine can use – albeit with the awareness of all the consequences.
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