“Moscow continues to spread false information that a Russian victory is inevitable in order to force Ukraine and the West to agree to Russian demands. This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). ISW notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin was dressed in military uniform during a November 20 meeting at the command post of the Western Group of Forces – the fourth time he has donned military uniform at a public event since the start of the full-scale invasion and just weeks after he did so a second and third time in mid-September and late October 2025. The Chief of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, Valery Gerasimov, began his report with the statement that Russian troops are advancing on almost all fronts on the battlefield. He claims that the Russian army captured more than 80 percent of Vovchansk and more than 75 percent of Pokrovsk. However, ISW only has evidence to estimate that Russian forces have captured 34 percent of Vovchansk and 46 percent of Pokrovsk. The commander of the Southern Group of Russian troops, Lieutenant General Serhii Medvedev, who recently assumed this position, said that the Russian troops took control of the eastern and southeastern parts of Kostiantynivka and began to clear the central part of the city. However, ISW only has evidence of penetration of Russian troops into limited areas in the southeast of Kostiantynivka. Medvedev said that the Russian military command plans to capture most of this Ukrainian city by mid-December 2025. Putin replied that it was not important to set specific dates, but analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that Medvedev’s statement is an attempt to present the Russian military command as confident in its ability to quickly capture the southern part of Ukraine’s heavily fortified fortress belt. ISW also notes that Moscow continues to exaggerate claims of success in Kupyansk, a narrative that the Kremlin began actively promoting in late August 2025. Gerasimov claimed that Russian troops had captured all of Kupyansk. Instead, the Institute for the Study of War continues to assess that Ukrainian troops in the Kupyan region are successfully repelling Russia’s efforts to capture a settlement of this scale for the first time in recent years. The Russian military command continued to use the raising of flags on the battlefield to support its claims of Russian successes. Geolocated video footage released on November 21 shows small groups of between two and five Russian servicemen raising flags in Kupyansk, Novoselevka, Stavky and Yampol — four towns that the Russian military command said were captured by Russian forces during a meeting with Putin. Analysts estimate that the Russian flag raisings on the battlefield were part of Russian infiltration missions that did not change control of the area, and Russia increasingly relies on video footage of Russian flag raisings to announce advances. ISW notes that Russian successes on the battlefield are not imminent, and the Kremlin is stepping up efforts to exaggerate Russia’s recent military actions to persuade Ukraine to surrender territory in the Donetsk region that Russian forces are unlikely to capture without a years-long campaign. According to analysts’ estimates, since the summit in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15, Russian forces have captured approximately 908 square kilometers of additional territory (about the size of Berlin) throughout Ukraine. “Some of these territorial gains were made possible by seasonal weather conditions (fog and rain) that made it difficult for Ukraine to use drones, and the pace of the Russian offensive is likely to slow down as weather conditions stabilize. “Continued military aid and European funding of US arms sales to Ukraine will likely enable Ukrainian forces to defend Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk region for several years and possibly even repel some Russian gains,” the report says. ISW analysts note that Russia is facing mounting problems in terms of material and human resources, which will continue to complicate Moscow’s ability to secure the war as it drags on, so the Russian Federation “is very interested in forcing Ukraine to surrender critical territories that the Russian military is unlikely to be able to take by force in the near future.””, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
ISW notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin was dressed in military uniform during a November 20 meeting at the command post of the Western Group of Forces – the fourth time he has donned military uniform at a public event since the start of the full-scale invasion and just weeks after he did so a second and third time in mid-September and late October 2025.
The Chief of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, Valery Gerasimov, began his report with the statement that Russian troops are advancing on almost all fronts on the battlefield. He claims that the Russian army captured more than 80 percent of Vovchansk and more than 75 percent of Pokrovsk. However, ISW only has evidence to estimate that Russian forces have captured 34 percent of Vovchansk and 46 percent of Pokrovsk. The commander of the Southern Group of Russian troops, Lieutenant General Serhii Medvedev, who recently assumed this position, said that the Russian troops took control of the eastern and southeastern parts of Kostiantynivka and began to clear the central part of the city. However, ISW only has evidence of penetration of Russian troops into limited areas in the southeast of Kostiantynivka.
Medvedev said that the Russian military command plans to capture most of this Ukrainian city by mid-December 2025. Putin replied that it was not important to set specific dates, but analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that Medvedev’s statement is an attempt to present the Russian military command as confident in its ability to quickly capture the southern part of Ukraine’s heavily fortified fortress belt.
The Russian military command continued to use the raising of flags on the battlefield to support its claims of Russian successes. Geolocated video footage released on November 21 shows small groups of two to five Russian servicemen raising flags in Kupyansk, N Ovoselivtsi, Stavkah and Yampoli — four settlements that, according to the Russian military command, were captured by Russian troops during a meeting with Putin.
Analysts estimate that the Russian flag raisings on the battlefield were part of Russian infiltration missions that did not change control of the area, and Russia increasingly relies on video footage of Russian flag raisings to announce advances.
ISW notes that Russian successes on the battlefield are not imminent, and the Kremlin is stepping up efforts to exaggerate Russia’s recent military actions to persuade Ukraine to surrender territory in the Donetsk region that Russian forces are unlikely to capture without a years-long campaign.
According to analysts’ estimates, since the summit in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15, Russian forces have captured approximately 908 square kilometers of additional territory (about the size of Berlin) throughout Ukraine.
“Some of these territorial gains were made possible by seasonal weather conditions (fog and rain) that made it difficult for Ukraine to use drones, and the pace of the Russian offensive is likely to slow down as weather conditions stabilize. “Continued military aid and European funding of US arms sales to Ukraine will likely enable Ukrainian forces to defend Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk region for several years and possibly even repel some Russian gains,” the report says.
ISW analysts note that Russia is facing mounting problems in terms of material and human resources, which will continue to complicate Moscow’s ability to secure the war as it drags on, so the Russian Federation “is very interested in forcing Ukraine to surrender critical territories that the Russian military is unlikely to be able to take by force in the near future.”