“Short-term realized-loss dominance is typical of market stress, but the magnitude this week stands out.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
Data from Glassnode shows realized losses have surged to levels comparable to the November 2022 capitulation around the FTX collapse. The spike is being driven almost entirely by short-term holders, a colloquial term for wallets that bought within the past 90 days, unwinding at scale as BTC extends its fall below the 200-day moving average.
Short-term realized-loss dominance is typical of market stress, but the magnitude this week stands out. The current cluster is the largest since early 2023, and one of only a handful in the past five years to reach a $600 million to $1 billion daily run-rate.
(Glassnode)
Market structure indicators tell a similar story. Independent analyst MEKhoko noted that BTC is now trading more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average.
That kind of displacement has occurred only three times in the past decade: November 2018, the March 2020 pandemic crash, and June 2022 during the Three Arrows Capital/Luna crisis.
btcusd is beyond 3.5 standard deviations from its 200dmaother occasions:
November 2018
March 2020
June 2022— mekhoko (@MEKhoko) November 20, 2025
This week’s drawdown matches the same behavioral pattern: A sharp expansion in spot selling, collapsing funding rates, and a measurable retreat of marginal buyers who previously leaned on momentum.
With BTC now deeply stretched below trend, washed-out short-term holders, and sentiment pinned in extreme fear, market positioning is approaching levels historically associated with short-term bottoms.
But without a clear macro catalyst, traders warn that volatility around these levels is likely to remain elevated.
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Peak fear suggests a tactical low may be near.
- Bitcoin’s Greed & Fear Index has plummeted to extreme pessimism, according to 10x Research.
- Peak fear suggests a tactical low may be near.
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