Delays in US Jobs Data Weaken the Quality of US Policymaking

Furthermore, for decision makers responsible for steering the US economy – whether through monetary or fiscal policy – ​​such data delays confound and undermine the quality of policymaking. The November employment report is to be published only on December 16, more than a week later than originally scheduled, and not until after the next Federal Reserve decision on December 10.

The Belated September Jobs Report Suggests a Slightly Stronger Labor Market Than Many Assumed The belated release of the September jobs report on Thursday gave one a delayed sketch of the state of the economy two months ago before the government shutdown. Employers added 119,000 jobs during the month – more than double economist estimates and better than the 4,000 jobs lost during the month before. A rise in the size of the workforce furthermore came against the outstanding narrative of shrinking supply. Furthermore – initial jobless claims fell to 220,000 last week – matching the lowest since September.

The unemployment rate, nevertheless, edged up to 4.4% in September from 4.3% a month before (Figure 1). In addition, payrolls were revised down 33,000 for July and August whereas continuing claims rose earlier this month.

Figure 1. US unemployment rate, with Scope Ratings forecasting

% year-over-year