“VanEck says bitcoin’s downturn is being driven by mid-cycle wallets while the oldest holders keep accumulating, with futures data showing washed-out market conditions.”, — write: www.coindesk.com
The asset management firm said wallets whose coins last moved within the past five years account for most of the recent selling, while the oldest cohorts have remained “remarkably steady” despite weakening sentiment. VanEck also noted that coins that were last moved more than five years ago continue aging into the cohort, adding roughly +278,000 BTC over the past two years, which the firm said signals that long-term conviction remains intact.
The report lands as bitcoin trades near multi-month lows. BTC was recently around $86,696 at 9:15 pm UTC on Thursday, down 3.2% over the past 24 hours and 31.2% below its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. Analysts have tied the broader decline to forced liquidations, long-term holder distribution and heightened volatility across offshore derivatives markets.
“There have been several catalysts, but it seems as if the biggest drivers are long-term selling by ‘OGs’, an uncertain economic climate, and a mass deleveraging event on the 10th of October,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told Euronews. He said older, large-balance holders “have been selling for several weeks,” creating “a flood of supply hitting the market.”
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, told Euronews that bitcoin’s swings also reflect aggressive trading behavior on offshore platforms. She said professional trading firms deploy order-book strategies “labelled spoofing or laddering,” adding that such firms “care only that [the price] moves quickly.”
VanEck said the 3-5 year age band has fallen 32% over the past two years as those coins changed addresses, a trend the firm links to turnover among cycle traders rather than capitulation by decade-long holders.
The report also highlighted a reset in speculative positioning: open interest in bitcoin perpetuals has dropped 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since Oct. 9, pushing funding rates to levels similar to past washed-out periods. Smaller wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased balances by 9% in six months and 23% in a year as the largest whale cohort trimmed positions.
VanEck said the combination of long-term holder stability, cohort rotation and futures-market capitulation leaves bitcoin in a “reset” state that has historically preceded tactical rebounds.
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Jefferies said that stablecoin giant Tether has quietly become one of the gold market’s most influential new buyers.
- Jefferies said stablecoin issuer Tether has purchased significant volumes of gold in recent months, tightening supply and influencing sentiment.
- The bank estimated that the stablecoin issuer now holds at least 116 tons, placing it among the world’s largest non-central bank holders.
- Continued USDT growth, rising profits, and Tether’s pro-gold stance could keep buying elevated, the report said.
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