In a letter to EU leaders, von der Leyen revealed when the war in Ukraine might end

Ursula von der Leyen, photo: Getty Images

When planning financial assistance to Ukraine for 2026 and 2027, the European Commission currently assumes that the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine should end at the end of 2026, according to the letter of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to the leaders of the European Union states dated November 17.

Source: “European Truth” with reference to the letter

Literally: “The scale of Ukraine’s financing deficit is significant. According to the previous forecasts of the International Monetary Fund – provided that the war ends at the end of 2026 and already taking into account all the support promised by the EU, member states and international partners – Ukraine will still face a huge shortage, which cannot be overcome without attracting new financing.”

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Details: Von der Leyen recalled that in October 2025, the European Council undertook to “solve Ukraine’s urgent financing needs for 2026-2027, including its military and defense efforts.”

The President of the European Commission identified four key parameters for the provision of financial assistance to Ukraine:

• funding should be available quickly, with the first disbursements due early in the second quarter of 2026;
• any new financial package must guarantee that it will not create an additional fiscal burden for Ukraine;
• funding should be flexible enough to take into account significant uncertainties regarding Ukraine’s precise funding needs in 2026-27;
• a fair distribution of the “burden” of financing Ukraine with the international partners of the EU should be ensured.

Prehistory:

• On November 17, French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Addad spoke on the sidelines of the EU General Affairs Council meeting in Brussels about the conditions set by French President Emmanuel Macron regarding the provision of “reparation loans” to Ukraine based on frozen Russian assets.
• According to the estimates of the European Commission, in 2026, Ukraine will need external financing in the amount of more than 71 billion euros, of which more than 51 billion will go to military needs.
• The EU’s plan with a “reparation loan” to Ukraine using Russian assets has stalled due to the reservations of Belgium, on the territory of which the main part of Russian assets in the EU is stored and which is afraid of the legal consequences of such a decision.
• The EU assures that the issue of using Russia’s frozen assets for financial support of Ukraine remains on the agenda, and the final decision will be made in December 2025.

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