Probable default and other dangers: expectations of the hryvnia exchange rate in November

Hryvnia exchange rate Photo: Informator

The middle of the November period on the Ukrainian money market will be under the influence of several significant factors, which will have a tangible effect on the specifics of trading sessions and their indicators, as well as the actions of market participants. Oleksiy Kozyrev, a financial analyst of the Ministry of Finance, names these aspects and gives a prediction of the hryvnia exchange rate.

On November 11, Tuesday, the United States celebrates Veterans Day, and American financial institutions will be inactive. A small number of Ukrainian clients will want to work on the terms of dollar supply by TOM on this day: the majority will either intensify their transactions in dollars on Monday, November 10, or will immediately postpone their requests for the purchase/sale of the currency to Wednesday, November 12.

“As a result, the volume of interbank transactions on Tuesday will decrease, and market participants will focus their attention on transactions in euros. Taking into account this situation, according to my forecast, the volume of transactions on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday according to the Bloomberg system will be in the range of $190 million – 280 million, and on Tuesday – up to $165 million – 215 million”, – notes Oleksiy Kozyrev.

November 19th is the end of the settlement period with the budget for taxes and contributions for the 3rd quarter of 2025 plus the payment of current payments for October. Since a large number of companies in war conditions are forced to work “on wheels” and especially they do not manage to accumulate hryvnia resources for such settlements with the state, already this week exporters will more actively realize foreign exchange earnings for settlements with the budget. And for the same reasons, importers will be forced to accumulate hryvnia, which will reduce their opportunities to purchase currency at the interbank. Such a schedule always favors the national currency in the foreign exchange market.

The current activities of companies, sales that are gaining momentum, and the increase of the ZVR of Ukraine. In the conditions of significant damage to critical infrastructure by Russian shelling, state-owned companies and businesses operating in this area have to spend considerable resources on purchasing imported equipment to replace damaged equipment. Additional demand for foreign currency will shape the growth of purchases of energy resources during the heating season.

Retailers became more active: fearing the destruction of warehouses, they have already started active sales for “Black Friday”, and they prefer to immediately transfer the proceeds into currency. Therefore, shop owners will also actively buy foreign currency this week, which will put additional pressure on the interbank exchange rate.

“In such a situation, the announcement of a new record increase in Ukraine’s gold and foreign exchange reserves (up to $49.5 billion as of November 1, 2025) reassures market participants who fear a serious devaluation of the hryvnia in the near future. Considering the government’s plans for budget expenditures during this period, the National Bank will definitely need these reserves to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market,” Oleksiy Kozyrev states.

Lack of progress in debt restructuring negotiations with holders of GDP warrants. An alarming sign was the announcement on the Euronext exchange that Ukraine has not yet reached an agreement with the Committee of GDP-warrant owners, who have approximately 35% of the total volume of these securities at their disposal. The next round of negotiations, which ended on November 5, aimed to exchange GDP warrants for new bonds. However, the parties could not agree on the terms of such an exchange. Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko, commenting on the negotiation situation with the holders of GDP warrants, emphasized: “despite the unprecedented challenges caused by the war and the drop in the economy by almost a third, Ukraine remains committed to a constructive dialogue and does not plan to add investors’ trust to the list of these losses.”

“I would like to remind you that warrants worth $2.6 billion are currently in the hands of private investors. Ukraine now intends to restructure this debt, because due to the war it cannot afford to buy back these papers, as before. I consider the position of the Ministry of Finance in this situation to be completely constructive and predict that after conducting several more rounds of negotiations (in particular, possibly with the involvement of the IMF), a solution to this problem will be found. So far, there is no of the result is a negative aspect for the market,” says Oleksiy Kozyrev.

Active interventions of the National Bank to support the hryvnia exchange rate on interbank and coverage of critical imports. In the current situation, the foreign exchange market of Ukraine will not be able to do without the constant interventions of the National Bank. Taking into account the growing need for foreign currency (which is mainly covered by the sale by the National Bank from the reserves of international aid received), the amount of the regulator’s interventions this week will remain significant.

“According to my forecasts, in the range of $620 million – 890 million. In general, for November of this year, the necessary volumes of such interventions will amount to no less than $3.3 billion – 3.9 billion. The increase in interventions has already begun, and so far the volume of currency sold by the regulator will only increase. According to my forecast, by December of this year, they will again approach the monthly peak of about $5 billion – 5.4 billion. Similar volumes of the National Bank’s maximum interventions were observed in December 2024,” notes Oleksiy Kozyrev.

Active acquisition of currency by the population. Opening at the beginning of November of new monthly limits on the purchase of currency by citizens on their cards within the limits of up to 50 thousand hryvnias and up to 200 thousand hryvnias equivalent for currency deposits with a term of 3 months or more has not been used so far. Therefore, this week, according to the expert’s calculations, the daily purchase of currency by the population on cards and on the cash market will exceed the volume of its surrender by citizens by $35 million — 65 million. This will also put pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank and cash market.

Geopolitics: the unfolding of events surrounding the shutdown in the USA, possible new statements by Donald Trump on trade policy and the publication of current economic data of the world’s leading countries. Fluctuations of the world’s key currency pair will instantly be reflected in the euro exchange rate in Ukraine.

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