Prepare canisters: experts predict a winter shortage of fuel and price increases at gas stations.

Cars in winter Photo: Informator

Ukrainians are confused by talk about the shortage of auto fuel. Experts cite the reason for the restriction on enterprises that process Russian oil, which will significantly reduce the list of resource suppliers to Ukraine. The “Ministry of Finance” investigated whether Ukraine is really threatened by a lack of fuel and what will happen to prices at gas stations.

The founder of the Prime group of companies, Dmytro Leushkin, estimates the probability of a fuel shortage this winter at the level of 30-40%. According to him, resource failures at gas stations are possible, as well as “prices will jump.” Leushkin suggests that Ukrainians, just in case, “buy a few canisters and place them in the garage”, i.e. stockpile fuel, especially considering the need for generators, as experts have already reported that serious problems with energy supply are possible in the country in winter.

But Gennady Ryabtsev, the head of special projects of the National Research Center “Psyche”, is convinced that it is premature to make pessimistic forecasts, at least now. However, he does not rule out that gas station operators will try to raise the price of gasoline and diesel amid the uproar.

Why restrictions against oil companies of the Russian Federation can affect the fuel market of Ukraine At the end of October, the USA imposed sanctions against the two largest oil companies of the Russian Federation, Rosneft and Lukoil (the latter also owns processing facilities in Europe), as well as their subsidiaries. Indian refineries have already reported that it is almost impossible to continue sending the resource to large refiners after the sanctions take effect. Europe is actively stocking up on Indian fuel. According to Bloomberg, only from October 1 to 20, supplies to the EU reached about 362 barrels per day — 20% of total imports of diesel and aviation fuel.

Ukraine buys automotive fuel in Europe, in particular, we also receive large volumes of Indian fuel. Therefore, experts believe that after the Indian fuel is finally “blocked” (a complete stop is planned for the beginning of 2026), Ukraine may experience a shortage of diesel. However, supplies of the resource will be reduced not only from India, but also from other countries that process Russian oil, in particular, from Turkey.

According to Leushkin, the situation is gradually getting worse. Currently, Ukrainian importers cannot buy diesel in Romanian Constanta, as well as in Bulgaria and Romania. This ban was established separately by the Ukrainian authorities.

There remains the Polish oil concern Orlen, which, according to Leushkin, “refused us an additional resource”, as well as minor shipments from Greece and other destinations, which are few. In addition, there is a threat of storms in winter, so sea transportation through Ishmael can be difficult.
Supply problems are aggravated by other difficulties faced by Ukrainian importers, in particular, with transportation, insufficient number of drivers, etc. Therefore, Ukrainians may face fuel shortages at local gas stations this winter, Leushkin believes.

“As it is now, going to any gas station and refueling, most likely, will not work,” predicts Leushkin, advising Ukrainians to make at least small “strategic” reserves of fuel in advance – to leave “several canisters” in the garage.

A limited supply of gasoline and diesel may coincide with increased demand. Against the backdrop of power outages, businesses and ordinary citizens began to use generators en masse again. They operate on diesel fuel or gasoline, therefore, according to Gennady Ryabtsev’s calculations, an increase in resource consumption by at least 5-7% is possible.

However, gas stations have long been complaining about the decline in sales at gas stations due to a sharp increase in the structure of the fleet of electric vehicles. Whether the generators will cover these volumes, and what the market will end up with, is currently unclear. But it is not so much about a systemic shortage of gasoline and diesel as about failures in their shipments. That is, it is possible that there will be separate periods when the former stocks of gas stations have already been sold out, and new ones have not yet been brought to them.

A shortage of autogas can also be felt. According to the specialized resource enkorr, there is already a shortage of propane in Europe, and prices are also rising against the background of bans on the conclusion of urgent agreements on the import of Russian butane. Several Polish firms have reported a lack of propane, which extends the grain drying season. In the last week of October, batches of propane-butane mixture became more expensive in Europe by $4 per ton — up to $623-648. This immediately affected the cost of the resource at the Ukrainian border — plus $4−11 per ton (up to $658−702).

Ryabtsev notes that it is still too early to talk about fuel shortages on the market, but at least importers will need to change their supply routes.

“There will be no Turkish fuel, we will have to look for something else, for example, Saudi fuel. There should not be any particular problems with this, since the Ukrainian fuel market is considered premium, and many refiners want to supply our country with their resource,” he explains.

But, according to Ryabtsev, against the backdrop of talk of a possible shortage, sellers may try to change the price tags.

Oil prices are down, gasoline prices are up According to the data of the consulting firm “A-95”, as of the beginning of November, the average fuel prices in Ukraine almost did not increase, and in some cases even decreased. For example, the wholesale price of “A-95” gasoline decreased to 49.65 hryvnias per liter, and the retail price – to 58.66 hryvnias. Diesel became cheaper in wholesale to 50.32 hryvnias, and in retail it became slightly more expensive (up to 56.52 hryvnias per liter). Automobile gas at the wholesale price increased to 29.75 hryvnias, and at retail it fell in price to 34.46 hryvnias per liter.

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