As the submarine waters of the economy destroyed Germany and washed Russia

The Russian economy now resembles a building over groundwater: it stands firmly, but deep under it is already washed. It is not visible on televisions, but it lasts daily, relentlessly, and changes the structure of the state itself.

A hundred years ago, Germany showed similar stability. At the beginning of 1918, Kaiser statistics reported on a “controlled situation”, although industrial production fell by almost 40%and the agricultural sector – more than a third. Food was normalized, workers were transferred to military factories, and real incomes of the population have halved. The country that has been fighting for years, it was depleted not on the front but in the rear. And when the army was still standing, the economy was already lying.

Costs for war – more than 7% of GDP, about 15 trillion rubles. This is more than education, health care, transport and industry together. The income from oil and gas funded by the state machine was asked for a fifth. To patch holes, the government increases debts, raises taxes, and calls inflation “managed”.

The Kaiser Germany once operated. Financing the war with loans that could not return, it destroyed the trust in its currency. 87% of military expenditures were covered with debt and after defeat it turned into hyperinflation to 30000% per month in 1923. Mark depreciated so much that people drowned the stoves with packs of money. The debt bubble seemed “technical issues” until he destroyed the state.

In Russia, now the same scenario at a slower pace: instead of a front catastrophe – budget erosion, instead of losing war – losing the economy.

In industry, Russian statistics show an increase, but this increase in military. The factories that “came to life” are produced not tractors, not cars, not civilian engines, but shells, armored vehicles, ammunition. Most of this “growth” falls on a military-industrial complex that would not have a market in peacetime. This is not a development – an expansion of the funeral business of the economy.

The similar picture was also in Germany on the eve of 1918. They also reported on the restoration of industrial production, but only military factories were growing: artillery, chemical industry, metallurgy, which worked on the front. When the war was over, this artificial boom collapsed in a few months. The military economy does not have the day after tomorrow, it is exhausted even by those who seem strong now.

Problems with personnel are only exacerbated. Mobilization, emigration, demographic pit – and no longer enough about two million workers. By 2030, the shortage may reach ten million. The increase in salaries in military and power structures pulls resources from a civilian economy. Businesses are forced to either close vacancies or simplify technological processes. The result is less qualification, lower productivity, higher cost.

Technological degradation is another level of the same erosion. Import substitution works only on paper. Aviatro for a year collected two dozen aircraft instead of the planned 170. In mechanical engineering – a shortage of parts, in microelectronics – dependence on “gray” channels. This is not a collapse, but constant subsidence. The system can no longer produce complex things, only collects what is still left.

External pressure is added to the internal exhaustion. History is rhymed again: then – marine blockade, now – technological. During the First World War, the United Kingdom blocked the sea routes by Germany, depriving it of supply of raw materials, food and fuel. Formally, the front was standing, but the industry was breathless, without trade, without access to the world markets. It was the blockade that made the war economically hopeless long before the military defeat.

Russia cannot be blocked by a fleet, but it can be stifled by insulation. And it is already happening. Technological and financial blockade are the modern equivalent of the British sea ring. Without access to foreign technologies, capital, insurance, logistics and freight, the Russian economy loses oxygen. It is still moving inertia, but it becomes harder to breathe every month. It is this slow lack of oxygen that is the most effective long -lasting weapon.

Even the agrarian sphere, which is called “sanctally stable” in Russia, began to crack. Turkey has temporarily stopped the import of wheat, freight and insurance went up, transportation fell by one third. In September-October exports of agro-industrial complex, the agro-industrial complex collapsed at times, in some positions-to a minimum in a few years. The chains that seemed strong were thinner than expected in Moscow.

And all this is against the backdrop of political stubbornness, which becomes part of the problem. Kaiser Wilhelm II in the fall of 1918 to the last denied the possibility of surrender. Its generals, advisers, ministers have already seen: the country is exhausted, the front will not withstand another year. But Kaiser repeated, “The army stands. We win.”

The same, in other words, says Putin. In his rhetoric, everything is “stable”, “managed” and “according to plan”. When the highest political center lives in fictional stability, any crack is declared “temporary soil inequality.” This is the point where psychology occurs with the economy and makes the catastrophe inevitable.

The story does not copy the events, but rhymes with them. As a hundred years ago, Germany assured itself that “everything is under control”, so now Russia lives in the belief that “everything is planned”. Then the cracks were silenced until the building settled. Now – just watching the water under the foundation rises again.

Underwater waters do not stop when they are denied. They just wash further: first slowly, then faster. And when the crack passes through the bearing beam, the house is no longer saved by cosmetic repairs. The Russian economy is now at this stage. It is still standing, but the load -bearing elements have lost their strength.

For Ukraine, this means one thing: it is necessary to keep the pressure until the enemy foundation gets wet. Keep stability of assistance, beat military infrastructure, protect exports and markets. Because when a stranger begins to settle, a chance for our strategic fracture will open at this point. The collapse of the military economy is never loud. It begins quietly – with a crack that no one noticed it. It is in this silence that you can hear the water under the foundation.