Russia's redirection of oil supplies amid drone attacks pressures its export terminals – Bloomberg

The volume of Russian seaborne oil supplies in the last four weeks remained close to a 16-month high, as drone attacks on oil refineries force the redirection of flows to export terminals and strain their effective capacities, Bloomberg reports, writes UNN.

DetailsAccording to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, the average daily volume of shipments from the country’s ports for the four weeks ending October 5 was 3.57 million barrels per day, which is approximately 80,000 barrels per day below the maximum value since May 2024. The average figure provides a clearer picture of underlying trends than more volatile weekly figures.

The sharp increase in supply volumes occurred amid intensified drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, with at least 15 plants in the European part of Russia being hit in the last two months, the publication writes. Among the recent ones is a fire at the Kirishi refinery, located more than 800 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System recorded two fires at the site early Saturday morning. This was the second time the plant had been hit in less than a month.

According to JPMorgan Chase & Co estimates, due to the strikes, oil refining volumes in Russia fell below 5 million barrels per day, the lowest figure since April 2022. This decline was accompanied by a sharp increase in oil supplies, which grew by approximately 500,000 barrels per day from mid-August over four weeks.

“Russia may not be able to redirect significantly more oil for export if attacks on refineries intensify. Reserve capacities at crude oil export terminals look very limited,” the publication states.

Two of the three ports most likely to handle barrels from affected refineries – Primorsk on the Baltic and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea – are now close to their capacity ceilings, the publication writes. Although the third port – Ust-Luga, also located on the Baltic – reportedly has nominal throughput capacity for increased exports, its supply volumes throughout the year are significantly lower than the peak reached in October 2024. These figures mean that the three western ports have only about 165,000-265,000 barrels per day of spare capacity, the publication indicates.

Oil shipmentsAccording to vessel tracking data and port agent reports, 35 tankers loaded 27.17 million barrels of Russian oil in the week to October 5. The volume increased from 26.75 million barrels on 35 vessels the previous week.

Exports from the western Russian ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk remained stable at about 2.2 million barrels per day, with increased flows from Murmansk offsetting a small decrease in supplies from the Pacific region.

Export valueMoscow’s gross export value decreased by approximately $40 million to $1.53 billion in the week to October 5.

The price of Urals crude from the Baltic decreased by approximately $2.20 per barrel to an average of $54.22, while the cost of Black Sea supplies decreased by $2 to $54.58 per barrel for the week.

The price of the key Pacific ESPO crude grade decreased by $1.10 per barrel to an average of $61.58 per barrel. Prices delivered to India decreased by $2 per barrel to $65.22 per barrel, according to Argus Media data. On average over four weeks, the export price of Russian Urals crude from the Baltic and Black Seas decreased by $0.20 to $54.82 and $55.04 per barrel, respectively. The price of Pacific ESPO crude decreased by $0.40 per barrel to an average of $62.41 per barrel.

According to this indicator, the value of exports averaged about $1.43 billion per week for the 28 days ending October 5, which is approximately $34 million less than for the same period ending September 28.

Deliveries by destinationObserved Russian oil supplies to Asian consumers, including those without a final destination, decreased slightly to 3.22 million barrels per day for the 28 days ending October 5, compared to a revised 3.25 million barrels per day for the period ending September 28.

Reportedly, although the volume of Russian oil shipped to India is apparently sharply decreasing, there is still a significant amount of oil on vessels without a final destination, which allows for an expectation of a change in this trend. Tankers sailing to India are increasingly not indicating a final destination until they have passed far enough through the Arabian Sea, and some do not indicate a final destination at all, even after mooring for unloading, the publication indicates.

Deliveries on tankers heading to Indian ports fell to 830,000 barrels per day for the four weeks ending October 5, but for vessels that have not yet indicated a final destination, this figure is over 1.1 million barrels per day.

Of these, about 910,000 barrels per day are on vessels from Russia’s western ports that indicate Port Said or the Suez Canal as their destination, or on vessels from Pacific ports for which no clear delivery point is specified, and another 240,000 barrels per day are on tankers that have not yet been signaled a destination.

Deliveries to Turkey for the four weeks ending October 5 decreased to approximately 310,000 barrels per day. Supplies to Syria remained at the same level – about 35,000 barrels per day.