“China’s Golden Week Spending Data May Decide if Beijing Can Hit ITS 5% GDP Goal As Tariffs, Weak Jobs, and Housing Wees Weigh on Growth Outlook.”, – WRITE: www.fxempire.com
- Consumer Spending: Retail Sales Figures for Major Consumption Categories, Including Dining, Entertainment, and Shopping.
- Payment and Transaction Data: Transaction Volumes Reported by Payment Platforms.
- Tourism Data: Domestic Tourist Trips and Overall Tourism Numbers, Including Travel Trends.
- Transportation Data: Passenger Volumes.
Beijing Tends to Highlight Positive Consumption Trends As Indicators of Consumer Confidentnce and Economic Robustness.
In 2024, Spending During Golden Week Contributed to 5% GDP Growth, Bolstered By Policy Measures, Aimed at Boosting Consumption.
Notably, Retail Sales Rose 4.8% Year-on-Year in October 2024, Up from 3.2% in September. DOMESIC TRIPS INCREASED 5.9% YOY, While Tourism Spending Rose 6.3% Yoy In October. Outbound Travel Surged 40% Yoy On October 1, As Overseas Travel Gained Momentum After The Effects of Covid-19 Abated. Visa Processing Normalized, and Flight Capacity Was Restored.
Economic Pressures Challenge Consumption FAST FORWARD TO 2025, AND ECONOMISTS WILL CLOSELY Scrutinize the Year-on-Year Figures.
US Tariffs on Chinese Goods and Transhipments Have Weaned External Demand, Intensifying Competition. Rising Competition Has Led To Price Wars and Margin Pressures. FIRMS Responed to Margin SQueezes, Cutting Jobs to Protect Bottom Lines.
Rising UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE ONGOING HOUSING Crisis Have Weighed on Consumer Sentiment, Challenging Beijing’s Efforts to Boost Private Consumption. Retail Sales Increased 3.4% Year-on-Year in August 2025, Down from 3.7% in July and 4.8% in June.
Another Set of Weak Consumption Reports May Raise Doubts About Beijing Achieving ITS 5% GDP Growth Target. However, Policymakers Could Respond with Further Stimulus Measures to Revive the Economy.
Stimulus Expectations Build Goldman Sachs Economists have Raissed the CHANCES OF The People’s Bank of China Cutting Interest Rates to Support the Economy. WHILE RECENT DATA HAVE RAISED DOBTS, Some EConomists Warn Beijing May Hesitate to Add Support If Growth Momentum Appears Sufficient to Meet The 5% Target.
Last Week, Lawmakers Pledged Further Support, Highlighting Beijing’s Conceerns About the Economic Outlook. CN Wire Reported that Policymakers Will Continue to Strengten and Timely Intensify Implementation of Macro Policies and Roll Out Measures Promptly As Conditions Evolve.
Accorging to cn wire, China’s NDRC STATED:
“China’s Economy Still Faces Significant Risks and Challenges Amid Tough and Complex External Environment. Will Accelerate Adoption of Smart Devices and Systems Acrossi Industries by Into. Subsidies on the Demand Side.
Mainland Equity Markets: Rally at Risk? Mainland equity markets have enjoyed Three Strong Quarters of Gains, Despite the Slowdown in Q3.
China’s Advancements in the Ai Space, Chip Development, and Expectations of Further Stimulus have Lifted Sentimnt. The CSI 300 IS UP 17.94% Year-To-Date (YTD) and at A Three-Year High. Meanwhile, The Shanghai Composite Index Has Advanced 15.84%, Climbing to A 10-YEAR HIGH.
Mainland-Listed Stocks Record Highs, Suggesting Room for Further Gains IF Golden Week Data and Stimulus Support Align. However, Weak Golden Week Data and the Abscession of Fresh Stimulus Could Weight Weight on Sentiment.
For Contrast, The Hang Seng Index Has Soared 36% YTD As the Hang Seng Tech Index Surged 48.8%.