Vladimir Fesenko: I would not advise you to trap new high expectations from Trump

Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

US President Donald Trump has changed its rhetoric in Ukraine in recent days. While speaking at the UN General Assembly and on social networks, he expressed a number of applications that look a significant change in the US approach.

What stimulated the President of the USA to change their statements, whether it is possible to expect specific actions in the form of sanctions and pressure on Russia, how will American-Ukrainian cooperation develop-developing-development-will develop- Briefly about told The head of the center Penta’s Applied Political Research Volodymyr Fesenko.

Trump demonstrates that Russia is now, not Ukraine, turned out to be without trumps – Donald Trump has dramatically changed his statements about Ukraine and Russia. Why did it happen?

Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko. Photo: FB Vladimir Fesenko

– In fact, not everything as it seems. The main trend that has become noticeable and led to a significant change in Trump’s position is his positive rhetoric against Ukraine, which contrasts with his previous statements, especially at the beginning of his presidency. Earlier, he argued that Ukraine had no strong positions, and it sounded as if Ukraine had lost the war and should agree to Russia.

And now the approach is completely different – the assessment of the courage of Ukrainians and their ability to protect themselves. But! There is no anti -Russian rhetoric.

When Trump was asked if his opinion on Putin would change, “In a month we will look.” But these terms do not really matter, and one should not expect that a month will appear something specific from Trump. This is a convention. Trump is still not ready to change his attitude to Russia today. Therefore, I would not hurry to conclude that his position on the Russian-Ukrainian war changed dramatically. It is worth noting that when our international partners have recently made a joint statement about the need to ensure a just peace in Ukraine, the US was not part of this process. Therefore, I would not make unambiguous conclusions yet.

– What could or who could influence Trump when he announced that he was fully aware of the military and economic situation with Russia and Ukraine?

-First, it is the results of persistent, systematic work of Ukrainian diplomacy, and above all President Zelensky himself. From the beginning of the second term Trump has already been five meetings with him. I think it is difficult now to find other foreign leaders who would so often communicate with the US President. Zelensky managed to find the necessary style and tone in communication with Trump.

Trump’s position was also influenced by his special representative Kit Kellogg, who met with President Vladimir Zelensky before his meeting with Trump. This person is the main source of information for Trump about the military situation in Ukraine, and his role is significant. Trump respects Kelloga Kellog and appreciates his opinion as a military expert. Thus, the influence of our diplomacy, our friends in Washington, and active contacts with Trump influence his position on Ukraine.

– What signal to all Trump’s statement?

“This is a tactical signal that Trump seems to send Putin:” You want war and do not seek peace. Ok, I will help Ukrainians and Europe to fight you, and it is still unknown what this war will end for you. ” He thus challenges Putin.

Trump points out that Russia, not Ukraine, has no trumps. No wonder he emphasized the hostile economic situation in Russia. This is a rhetorical effect on Putin, on Russia: if you continue the war, you can lose. So, perhaps it will be best to negotiate. It is clear that Trump is aware of the problem in Putin and considers it necessary to put pressure on him.

… But we should not expect that Trump will now begin to help us in the recruitment of territories – Donald Trump stated that Ukraine can return its territory. It’s just words, can real actions follow this?

– Tactical – no. It is not necessary to literally accept that Trump will now begin to help us in the publication of territories or set such goals before us. No. It is rather a warning sign for Russia that the war can stretch, and it is unclear what it can end for Moscow. This phrase is only a tactical wording, and does not mean a call to Ukraine for the reconciliation of territories. Moreover, Trump will not help. This is only the Putin pressure method, and no more.

– It is important to note that Trump also stressed that Ukraine can return its territories with the support of the European Union. Does this mean that the US will not help us directly in this process?

– Yes, Americans will always be aside to some extent, they can help us indirectly, but it is not such help that would be for the benefit of Ukraine, but rather pressure on Russia to stop the war. Unfortunately, there will be no direct help from the US. I would not advise you to fall into the trap of new high expectations from Trump. Its main interest is to complete the war in Ukraine, not to help Ukraine win.

– You remember that you should not fall into this trap. Did Zelensky already find himself in this trap, judging by his statements after meeting with Trump?

– No, I didn’t get. Zelensky shows a certain enthusiasm after communicating with Trump, but I do not see him claim that the US is completely on our side. Trump just became closer, easier to negotiate with him, and he is open for conviction.

– Will the United States restore the supply of weapons to Ukraine, or will it remain exclusively for Europe?

– The sale of weapons has already recovered. But the supply of free assistance to Ukraine will no longer be. It’s Trump, not Biden. He will not return to the policy of free assistance. America will continue to sell weapons to us by Europeans through a program of priority needs of Ukraine (Purl).

– Trump noted that he will find out about his trust in Putin a month. What is meant and why the month?

– You should not be subjected to these “two weeks”, “month” and similar terms. In fact, nothing can happen or anything can happen.

You should expect that Trump himself will happen in a month. For example, whether Putin will react to a change in his rhetoric. After all, the Russian dictator realizes that Trump is moving away, and he is dissatisfied, annoyed, so you need to restore interaction with Trump. Therefore, it is important to observe not only what Trump will do, but also Putin’s actions against Trump.

Trump’s position in the coming month may also be influenced by the announcement of the Nobel Committee on Peace Prize on October 10, as Trump is very striving for this award.

After five personal meetings between Zelensky and Trump, understanding increased. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Putin in response will seek a new meeting or talking with Trump – You mentioned Putin. How can he answer these Trump statements?

– He will react two. On the one hand, it will continue to apply power pressure on both us and Europeans. Military attacks and air strikes will last at least by the end of the year. The Russian dictator needs to demonstrate Trump that Russia still wins war.

On the other hand, Putin can start promoting the idea of ​​new direct contacts with Trump. He has already convinced that personal meetings with Trump have an impact on the US President. Therefore, he either needs to organize a telephone conversation with Trump in the near future or to establish some new meetings. The rebellious communication of Trump and Putin will be laid.

– How does Putin always attract Trump’s attention?

– Putin exploits Trump’s stereotype that friendly relations between leaders are the basis for solving political problems. It is Trump’s beliefs, and Putin uses it, forming a semi -promoted relationship with him, and Trump’s soulful conversations are liked. Of course, flattery used by Putin as a manipulative technique playing on the topics that are important to Trump. In particular, on his business interests, because it has great interest in Russia’s natural resources.

Realizing that Trump seeks to end the war in Ukraine, Putin is very careful about this topic. He constantly supports the illusion of Trump that the war can be completed. But for this you need to make concessions from Russia. Why are our regular negotiations with Trump so important? Because it is the fight against Russia for Trump’s attention. We and Russia.

– What should happen to Trump finally turn away from Putin?

– It should be a complete betrayal by Putin Trump’s interests so that he himself perceives it as betrayal. Trump – a person is very specific, he can be radical, untrue, bully, rude, but extremely careful. When a scandal between him and Zelensky arose in the oval office, everyone believed that Zelensky’s path to the White House was closed and he would be an enemy for Trump. But what do we see? The opposite situation. Five meetings of Zelensky and Trump after that, and everything got much better.

Therefore, I am not sure that Trump should be completely disappointed in Putin. But I think that if Putin continues to compromise in negotiations and will not agree to peace steps, the Americans will gradually increase the pressure. The question is what form it will happen and what will appear. It may be common sanctions with Europeans.

So, a strategy is important for Trump. If the words do not produce results, it will start actions to force the other party to a real dialogue. But he will still be ready to negotiate with Putin. I will say an unpleasant thing for us: Russia is much more interesting to Ukraine in terms of natural and economic resources, as well as the importance in the global geopolitical game.

With Trump everything can change at any time – You noted that Trump and his team are focused on business. Will Trump be able to push Europe to stop the purchase of Russian energy? It would be extremely useful for us.

– He is gradually pressing on Europeans. However, this will not happen suddenly. Europe has explicitly accelerated its efforts to completely abandon Russian energy. They planned to abandon Russian liquefied gas by the end of 2027, and now discuss the opportunity to complete this process much earlier.

It is important that Trump has suggested that it was not Europe to buy oil, but in particular Hungary. So, we will observe whether he will be able to influence orban. I think there will also be some progress here.

– Trump supported the idea of ​​destroying Russian planes and drones over NATO. Will this help Europeans become more determined?

– He supported it ambiguously. If you summarize his statement and what the Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, it does not mean automatic whipping, especially aircraft. Drones can be destroyed. I think that Europeans are now forming protocols that will be done. They will look: if the Russian aircraft accidentally enters the NATO territory, it will not be confused, but will try to expel beyond, and if there is a real threat of attack by the Russians, then the action is already being taken.

– Zelensky said that Trump now trusts him much more. Is this trust for a long time?

– No one knows the answer to this question. There is nothing constant with Trump. Everything can change, and unfortunately, there are no guarantees. Today, Trump is clearly bowing to our side. It is also likely to be Trump’s tactical maneuver. He is closer to Putin, then to us, he presses on Putin, then on us. More often – for us. But he does not make us do anything. Here’s what is important: he understands that peace should be at least relatively equal. Therefore, Trump began to pay more attention to the information from Zelensky. However, Trump has a problem – it does not delve into the detail. This is his weakness, and Putin is able to use it.

Source: kp.ua