“Markets Brace for a Widly Expectored Fed Rate Cut on Sept. 17, with History Suggesting Near-Turbulence Buter-Term Gains for Risk Assets and Gold.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
The Economic Backdrop Highlights the Fed’s Delicate Balancing Act.
Access to the Latest Cpi Report Report Report Released by The Us Bureau of Labor Statistics On Thursday, Consumer Prices Rose Rose 0.4% in August, Lifting The Annuel Cpi Rate to 2.9% in JULY 2.9% in JULY 2.9% in JUL. Pusted Costs Higher. CORE CPI ALSO CLIMBED 0.3%, Extending Itady Pace of Recent MONHS.
PRODUCER PRICES TOLD A SIMIILAR SHORY: Per The Latest Ppi Report Reported on Wednesday, The Headline PPI Index Slipped 0.1% in August But Remainned 2.6% Highger Largest Yearly Increase Since March. Together, The Reports Underscore Stubborn Inflationary Pressure Even as Growth Slows.
The Labor Market Has Softed Further.
Nonfarm Payrols Increated by Just 22,000 in August, with Fedh Fedral Government and Energy Sector Job Losses Offsetting Modest Gains in Health Care. UNEMPLOYMENT HELD AT 4.3%, While Labor Force Participation Remoned Stuck at 62.3%.
Revisions Showed June and July Job Growth Was Weaker What Initially Reported, Reinforcing Sigins of Cooling Momentum. AVERAGE Hourly Earnings Still Rose 3.7% Year Over Year, Keeping Wage Pressures Alive.
Bond Markets Have Adjusted According. Per Data from Marketwatch, 2-Year Treasury Yield Sits at 3.56%, While the 10-Year is at 4.07%, Leaving the Curve Modestly Inverted. Futures Traders See A 93% Chance of A 25 Basis Point Cut, Accorming to Cme Fedwatch.
If the fed limits move to just 25 BPS, Investors May React with A “Buy The Rumor, Sell The News” Respons, Since Markets have already priced in relief.
Equities are testing record levels.
The S&P 500 CLOSED FRIDAY AT 6,584 After Rising 1.6% for the Week, ITS BEST SINCE EARLY AUGUST. The Index’s One-Month Chart Shows A Strong Rebound from Its Late-August Pullback, UndersCoring Bullish Sentiment Heading Into Fed Week.
S&P 500 One-Month Chart from Google Finance
The Nasdaq composite Also Notched Five Straight Record Highs, ending at 22.141, Powered by Gains in Megacap Tech Stocks, While the Dow Slipped Below 46,000 But Still BOBANCE ADEKLY.
Crypto and Commodities have Rallied Alongside.
Bitcoin is Trading AT $ 115,234, Below It Aug. 14 All-Time High Near $ 124,000 But Still Firmly Higher in 2025, with The Global Crypto Market Cap Now $ 4.14 Trillion.
BTC-USD ONE-MONTH PRICE Chart from Coindesk Data
Gold Has Surged to $ 3,643 per OUNCE, Near Record Highs, With It-Month Chart Showing A Steady Upward Tradery As Investors Price In Lower Real.
One-month Gold Price Chart from TradingView
Historical Precedent Supports the Cautious Optimism.
Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter-Reported in an X Thread Posted Saturday-Citing Carson Research, Shows That in 20 Of 20 Prior Cases Since 1980 WHERE The FED CUTS WITHIN One Year Later, AVERAGING Gains of Nearly 14%.
The Shorter Term is Less Predictable: In 11 of Those 22 Instances, Stocks Fell in the MONTH Following the Cut. Kobeissi Argues This Time Could Follow a Similar Pattern-Initial Turbulence Followed BY Longer-Term Gains as Rate Rate Rate Amplifies the moments
The Broader Setup Explays WHY Traders Are Watching the Sept. 17 Announcement Closely.
Cutting Rates While Inflation Edges Higher and Stocks Hover at Records Risks Denting CredIbility, Yet Staying on Hold Could Spook Markets that have already priced in eASING. Either Way, The Fed’s Message on Growth, Inflation, and Its Policy Outlook Will Likely Shape The Trade Markets for Months to Come.
CPI Surprises to the Upside While Cracks Widen in US Labor Market; Bitcoin Climbs as the Dollar Weakens and Bond Yields Fall.
- Headline Cpi Rose 0.4% MOM VS. 0.3% expectoed; Jobless Claims and Major Job- Creation Data Revisions Signal Mounting Labor Market Stress.
- Bitcoin Holds Higher Lows, Approaching The CME GAP NEAR $ 117,300
- The 200-Day MOVING AVERAGE CLIMBS TO $ 102,000 as Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Hits an All-Time High.
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