“European leaders urgently discuss cease cessation scenarios or post -war regulation in Ukraine. One of them is the creation of a buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian troops as part of a potential peace agreement. In this case, the monitoring of the ceasefire regime must be monitored by multinational restraint forces, a peacekeeping contingent. Ua.news tells how much buffer zone can guarantee silence”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
European leaders urgently discuss cease cessation scenarios or post -war regulation in Ukraine. One of them is the creation of a buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian troops as part of a potential peace agreement. In this case, the monitoring of the ceasefire regime must be monitored by multinational restraint forces, a peacekeeping contingent.
UA.news tells how much the creation of a buffer zone can guarantee silence on the battlefield and why the format of all previous peacekeeping missions is unfit for war in Ukraine.
The idea of a buffer zone in the territory of Ukraine is not new
The creation of the demilitarized zone has already been discussed during the negotiations on the end of the war in Ukraine. In particular, the intention to create buffer zones along the borders of the Russian Federation with Ukraine to increase the distance from Ukrainian artillery and drones, stated in Kremlin .
European diplomats too considered This idea, although avoiding comparisons with the buffer zone between North and South Korea, as both countries are still in a state of armed conflict. Instead, the situation in Ukraine is more compared with the division of Germany during the Cold War.
According to European politicians, the 40-kilometer buffer zone should share the positions of Ukrainian and Russian armies. What territories it will cover, and what will be the number of peacekeeping contingent for patrolling – has not been finally resolved. Pre -participate from 4 to 60 thousand servicemen. The peacekeeping forces are expected to be responsible for patrolling the demilitarized zone and for the training of the Ukrainian military.
The question remains which countries will agree to send their military to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping contingent. For example, Poland and Germany categorically refused to participate, but Estonia expressed their readiness to allocate the relevant units. According to European officials, in general, the Allies expect that the main part of the troops near the ceasefire will be provided by Ukraine.
The United States does not participate in negotiations with Europeans about the creation of a demilitarized zone in the Ukrainian territory. Although Earlier, President Donald Trump stated that the United States would join the “coordination” of security guarantees in post -war Ukraine to prevent Russian attack after the peace agreement is concluded. It was reported that Washington will provide strategic reconnaissance, reconnaissance (ISR), observation and management, as well as provide air defense to protect the military contingent on site under the European command.
In August, a “decisive coalition”, which includes 30 countries under the leadership of Great Britain and France, declared a willingness to deploy forces of restraint in Ukraine.
“They again emphasized the willingness to deploy security forces after the termination of hostilities, as well as to assist in ensuring the safety – it was statement published on the British Government’s website.
At the same time, private European officials have recognized in their comments to the Western media that the deployment of multinational restraint forces can only occur with the support of the United States.
Political prospects for creating a buffer zone and reaction of Ukraine
“They grab for a straw. Russians are not afraid of Europeans. And if they think that several British and French observers will prevent them from invading Ukraine, then they are wrong, ” – commented Negotiations about the buffer zone interlocutor in diplomatic circles by Politico.
In the context of the current attempts by the President of the United States, Putin to negotiate, another European official explained: “Everyone is trying to agree on security guarantees as soon as possible so that Trump does not change his mind.”
In Kiev, the idea of creating a demilitarized zone stated that in fact, such a zone already exists on the front, as both sides have already dragged their equipment 10 km from the collision line. In addition, the plan of creating such a zone is not new. According to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, he has repeatedly heard about him from Europeans and Americans.
“Only those who do not understand in what technological state the war is currently undergoing a buffer zone 40-50-60 km. I even heard a proposal about 100 km. This is a completely different story. Today we have heavy weapons and is so 10+ km apart. Because everything is affected by drones. This buffer zone, I call the dead zone, someone calls the gray zone, it already exists ”, Zelensky explained.
The head of state noted that the effective use of drones is already holding back the approach of armored vehicles, “so it’s just unnecessary conversations.” For its part, the Kremlin is interested in the development of the Ukrainian defense forces away from the collision line, as it will allow the occupiers to feel more free in temporarily occupied territories near the front.
That does not take into account the idea of a buffer zone – aboutThe price of a military expert
Buffer zones exist to put the conditional breeding forces that will control the ceasefire, depending on their mandate. The distance of 30-40 km (15-20 km in different directions) is traditional for such a delimitation to protect against shelling of artillery. But it should be borne in mind that today drones are already in operation up to 40 km, confirms the irrelevance of previous demarcation formats Military Observer Denis Popovich.
“Kilzones” today reach a distance of 15-20 km, where nothing can pass-no technique. Even hunting for servicemen is happening now, so it is difficult to get to the line of combat collision, just get. That is to fight there is one story, and to get “zero” is a problem. So now the drones are acting.
Creating buffer zones is a rather traditional story. But to be honest, I am a great skeptic regarding the participation of European forces in guaranteeing the security of Ukraine after the conclusion of a peace treaty. Let’s say we will make a buffer zone. There will be a 40-kilometer strip, where the breeding forces will be located and in some way to control the ceasefire. I have the question: 1.200 km of front line, where millions of armies are opposed (which have advanced combat experience, which largely scales and write new sections in military affairs), which should be the number and quality of the armed forces in order to be effectively secured and breeding these belligers? How many troops are there in European countries to get them on this draw?
After all, when the issue of the transfer of the Armed Forces within the Forces of the Coalition of Decide was raised, everyone agreed that there are simply no free servicemen in Europe. There is not enough number. “
Denis Popovich does not reject the possibility of creating a buffer zone, if there will be political will and allocated appropriate resources. But so far, these are all political statements that have a practical complexity of execution.
“So far, we are seeing political statements, including the United States of America. What happens “underwater”, so to speak, no one knows it. There may be any specific plans and a specific vision of how all this will be realized. ”
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