Bitcoin Valativity ComESS ALIVE AHEAD OF PCE INFLATION DATA: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All Times et Unless Indicated OtherWise)

Bitcoin BTC$ 109.990.16 Has Droped Nearly 3% to $ 109.800 in the Past 24 Hours, Pulling The Broader Market, Including Ether (ETH), Down with it. But Those Losses Are Nothing Out of the Ordinary, Meaning Major Tokens Are Trading Near Recent Valuations.

What’s New Today Is That Btc’s Valativity Is Bouncing From Recent Multiyear Lows (See Chart of the Day). The 30-day Implied volatility, as Represented by Volmex’s Bviv and Deribit’s DVol Indices, Has Surged Above the 100-Day Simple MOVING AVERAGE for the FIRST TIME SINCE MID-JUNEE. Perhaps The Price Turbulence that Some Traders Predicted for August May Unfold in September.

The Increase Could Be Noteworthy for Stock Traders As An Early Indicator of A Potential Uptick in Wall Street’s VIX. The VIX is inversele Correlated with Stocks, Suggesting There’s of a Room Ahead on Wall Street, A Possability Underlined by Fiat Liquidity Dynamics.

“Market Liquidity Pressures Are Mounting As Reserve Balances Decline and Large Treasury Settlements Approach, Leaving Equities Vulneval Despite Lower Volatility,” Michael Kraeel. Management, Wrote in the Latest Edition of the Firm’s Markets Update.

One Piece of Data to Keep An Eye on Is The US Core Pce Release, Due Later Today.

“This PCE RELEASE WILL Shape The Fed’s Future EASING PATH RATHER NAPTEMBER DECISION ITSELF,” Analysts from Crypto Exchange Bitunix Wrote in An Email. “If Data Comes in at OR BLOW Expectations, Risk Sentiment Can Hold; But If Significantly Hotter, The Fed’s Forward Guidance May Shift Town a ‘One-Ie-Wait’ Stance. Trends, Alongside US Treasury Yields and the Dxy As Key Drivers of Risk Appetite. ”

In the Event of A Soft CPI, Ether May Outperform Because Traders Have Been Increatingly Focusing on Ethereum’s Native Token. That’s evident from the etf flows. This Week, The US-Listed Eth etfs have registered A Net Inflow of Over $ 1 Billion, Sosovalue Data Show. That’s Close to Double the $ 567 Million Entering the Bitcoin Etfs.

In Traditional Markets, The Spread Between the US 10- and Two-Year Treasury Yields Has Risen to the Highest Since September 2022. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 29, 2 PM: The Stellar Development Foundation Will Host A Liestream on X to Discusses How Near InTience Will Enable New Defi Use Cases on the Stellar Blockchain.
  • Aug. 30: conflux (cfx), A Layer-1 BLOCKCHAIN ​​FOCUSED ON HIGHTUGHPut and Ethereum Compatic, Will Activate Its V3.0.1 Improve Evm Compatibility, Fix Bugs and Optimize Performance. Node Operators Must Upgrade Before Sept. 1 to Ensure Network Compatibility.
  • Sept. 1: Starknet (Strk), A Layer-2 Scaling Product for Ethereum, Will Introduce ITS V0.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14.14 To Improve Speed ​​and Decentralization.
  • Sept. 3, 10:15 AM: TELOLOR (TRB), A Decentralized Oracle Network that Operates As an Ethreum Layer-2 Blockchain, Will Upgrade Its Mainnet to Version 5.1.1. The Upgrade Improves Network Performance and Node Operation, Enhance Tollar’s Role in Providing Off-Chain Data to Ethereum Smart Contracts.
  • Sept. 4: Polygon Will Switch ITS MAINNET TOCEN TO Pol FROM MATIC. Holders of Matic on Ethereum, Polygon Zkevm or Centralized Exchanges May Need to Take Action.
• Macro
  • Aug. 29, 8:30 AM: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (Bea) Releases July Consumer Income and Expenditure Data.
    • Core Pce Price Index Mom Est. 0.3% Vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core Pce Price Index Yoy Est. 2.9% Vs. Prev. 2.8%
    • PCE PRICE INDEX MOM EST. 0.2% Vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • PCE PRICE INDEX YOY EST. 2.6% Vs. Prev. 2.6%
    • Personal Income Mom Est. 0.4% Vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Personal Spending Mom Est. 0.5% Vs. Prev. 0.3%
  • Aug. 29, 11 AM: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) Release July Unemployment Rate Data.
    • UNEMPLYMENT RATE EST. 8.9% Vs. Prev. 8.6%
  • Aug. 30 – Sept. 1: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – A Eurasian Intergovernmental Alliance Focused on Regional Security, Economic Cooperation, and Political Coordination – Holds 25th Annual.
  • Sept. 1, 9 AM: S&P Global Releases August Brazil Data On ManualAfacting and Services Activity.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 48.2
  • Sept. 1, 11 AM: S&P Global Releases August Mexico Data On Manufacturing and Services Activity.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 49.10
  • Sept. 1, 11 AM: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics Releases August Consumer Price Inflation Data.
    • Inflation Rate Mom Prev. 0.23%
    • Inflation Rate Yoy Prev. 1.69%
• Earnings (Estimates Based On Factor Data)
  • none in the Near Future

TKEN EVENTS

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Gmx Gmx$ 15.49 is voteing on Approving A Recurring MONTHLY Treasury Swap to Support the Expansion of GMX Solana. Voting Closes on Aug. 30.
  • Sonic (s) is voteing on a potential US etf lining and building a strategic reserve to strengten the Balance sheet of a nasdaq-listed Vehicle. Voting Closes on Aug. 31.
  • Dydx Dydx$ 0.6213 is voteing on kinder to Approve the v9.0 Software Upgrade. Voting ends on aug. 31.
  • Aug. 29: ton (ton) to host ask me anything with atomic Wallet on ton’s Role in Telegram’s Growth at 7 AM
  • Aug. 29: Iota Iota$ 0.1973 to host monthly call on the mainnet upgrade at at at 9 am
  • Aug. 29: Basic Attention (Bat) to Host X Spaces Event on Paywalls at 1 PM
  • Aug. 29: Near Protocol Near$ 2.4356 and Stellar Xlm$ 0.3635 to host LIVESTREAM ON NEW DEFI USE CASES AT 2 PM
• Unlocks
  • Sept. 1: sui Sui$ 3.4917 To Release 1.25% of It Circulating Supple Worth $ 153.1 Million.
  • Sept. 2: Ethena Ena$ 0.6454 to release 0.64% of it Circulating Supple Worth $ 25.64 Million.
  • Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to Unlock 1.27% of It Circulating Supple Worth $ 13.26 Million.
  • Sept. 11: Aptos Apt$ 4.2830 To Unlock 2.2% of Its Circulating Supple Worth $ 48.18 Million.
• TKEN LAUNCHES
  • Aug. 29: Celuvplay (Celb) To List on Kucoin, Gate and Mexc.
  • Aug. 29: Camp Network (Camp) to List on Bithumb.
  • Aug. 29: Kori (Kori) to List on Kucoin.

ConferencesThe Coindesk Policy & Regulation Conference (Formerly Known as State of Crypto) is a One-Day Boutique Event Held in Washington on Sept. 10 that Allows General Counsels, Compliment Officers and Regulatory Executives to Meet with Public Officials Responsible for Crypto Legislation and Regulatory Oversight. Space is limited. Use Code CDB15 FOR 15% OFF YOUR REGISTRATION THRUGH SEPT. 1.

• Aug. 29: Bitcoin Asia 2025 (Hong Kong)
• Sept. 3-4: Conf3RENCE (DORTMUND, Germany)
• Sept. 3-5: Bitcoin ++ (Istanbul)
• Sept. 4-5: Ethwarsaw 2025 (Warsaw)
• Sept. 4-6: Taipei Blockchain Week (Taiwan)
• Sept. 5: Bitcoin Indonesia Conference 2025 (Bali)

Token TalkBy shaurya malwa

• Solana (SOL) Posted a 44% drop in Second-Quarter Application Revenue, Sliding to To To to $ 576.4 Million from $ 1 Billion in The First Quarter Even as Its Defi Sector Expanded, Access to MESARI.
• The Downturn Reflects Weaker Profitability Across Key Decentralized Apps. Pump.fun (Pump) Still Led WitH $ 156.9 Million, But Was Still Down 44% As Memecoin Frenzy Cooled.
• Axiom Was The Outlier, Surging 641% to $ 126.6 Million, Showing How Fast Protocol-SPECIFIC GROWTH CAN OFFFSET BROADER ECOSYSTEM Weakness. Jupiter Jup$ 0.5132 Earned $ 66.4 Million (–16%), While Phantom an Photon Were Hit Hardest with Declines of 65% and 72%, Respectively.
• Despite Revenue Losses, Defi TVL on Solana Climbed 30% to $ 8.6 Billion in the Quarter and Has Since Crossed $ 11 Billion, Cementing The CHAINA AS The LARGEST DEFI NETWORK BEHINE EHINEUM.
• Kamino Finance Drove TVL Growth, UP 34% to $ 2.1 Billion After Introducing Kamino Lend V2, Which Attracked $ 200 Million in Deposits and $ 80 Million in Loans Withne Weeks. Kamino Now Controls 25% of Solana’s Market Share.
• Raydium Staged A Strong Comeback, Rising 54% to $ 1.8 Billion in TVL, Reclaiming Second Place from Jupiter. It Now Commands 21% Share Versus Jupiter’s 19%.
• Trading Activity, However, Told A Different Story: Average Daily Spot Dex Volume Fell 45% To $ 2.5 Billion, Reflection A Fading of The Memoenumentum that Had Fueled The Previos Quareter’s.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open Interest (Oi) in Futures Tied to the Top 20 Coins, Excluding Sol, Has Decreated in the Past 24 Hours, Indicating Broad-Based Capital Outflows.
• Sol’s Open Interest, However, Hit A Record High 63.84 Million, Alongside A Rally in the Token’s Price to $ 217, A Level Last Seen In February.
• The eight-hour funs rates for ether, TRON AND BNB FLIPPED SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE, INDICATING A BIAS FOR BEARISH BETS ON A DROP IN PRICES. FUNDING RATES FOR Other Major Major Tokens Were Steady at Around Zero, Indicating Neutral Sentiment.
• Oi in the cme bitcoin Futures slippers to 135.72k BTC, The Lowest Since April, While Ether Oi RemAned Elegated at Record Highs 2.10 Million Eth. The Divergence Suggests a Continued Preference Among Investors for Eth Over BTC.
• On Deribit, Downside BTC Options Has Strengten ACross All Tenors, with Puts Trading at A Five Volatility Premium to Calls at the Front End. ETH Options Display Similar Dynamics, Marking A Shift from Bullish Positioning Early This Week.
• On Paradigm, Block Flows Featured Call Selling and Put Rolling Strategies in BTC and ETH. Market Maker Wintermute Pointed to Demand for Call Spreads in the December Expiry BTC Options.

Market Movements

• BTC is Down 1.87% from 4 pm et thursday at $ 109,828.05 (24hrs: +1.95%)
• ETH IS DOWN 2.66% AT $ 4,013.41 (24hrs: -5.69%)
• Coindesk 20 is Down 2.52% AT 4.168.55 (24hrs: -3.73%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate is up 2 BPS at 2.92%
• BTC FUNDING RATE IS AT 0.0056% (6.0992% Annualized) On Binance

• DXY IS UP 0.14% AT 97.95
• Gold Futures Are Down 0.18% AT $ 3.467.90
• Silver Futures Are Down 0.54% AT $ 39.49
• Nikkei 225 Closed Down 0.26% AT 42,718.47
• Hang Seng Closed Up 0.32% AT 25,077.62
• Ftse is down 0.27% at 9,192.27
• Euro Stoxx 50 is Down 0.52% AT 5.368.49
• Djia Closed On Thursday Up 0.16% AT 45,636.90
• S&P 500 CLOSED UP 0.32% AT 6,501.86
• NASDAQ composite Closed Up 0.53% AT 21,705.16
• S&P/Tsx Composite Closed UnChanged AT 28,434.80
• S&P 40 Latin America Closed Up 1.07% AT 2.770.74
• US 10-YEAR Treasury Rate Is Up 1.8 BPS at 4.225%
• E-mini S&P 500 Futures Are Down 0.32% AT 6,496.75
• E-mini NASDAQ-100 Futures Are Down 0.47% AT 23,657.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Are Down 0.34% AT 45,551.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.41% (+0.25%)
• Ether-Bitcoin Ratio: 0.03954 (-1.35%)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day Moving AVERAGE): 978 eh/s
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 53.73
• Total Fees: 3.3 BTC / $ 371,906
• CME FUTures Open Interest: 135,720 BTC
• BTC PRICED IN GOLD: 32.2 Oz.
• BTC VS Gold Market Cap: 9.11%

Technical AnalysisXrp’s Daily Chart. (TradingView/Coindesk)

• The Chart Shows Xrp’s Price Is Stuck with the Ichimoku Cloud, Indicating A Clear Directional Bias in the Market.
• A Move Below The Cloud Wound Confirm A Bearish Trend Shift, Opening The Way for A DEER DECLINE.
• The Price Has Already Establissed a Downntrend Since Peaking At $ 3.65 in July.

Crypto equities

• Coinbase Global (Coin): CLOSED ON Thursday at $ 308.47 (-0.16%), -1.53% AT $ 303.75 in Pre-Market
• Circle (CRCL): Closed AT $ 130.94 (+2.78%), -0.69% AT $ 130.04
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): CLOSED AT $ 24.51 (+0.41%), -2.08% AT $ 24
• Bullish (BLSH): CLOSED AT $ 64.43 (+0.7%), -2.5% AT $ 62.82
• MARA HOLDINGS (MARA): CLOSED AT $ 15.96 (+0.69%), -2.26% AT $ 15.60
• Riot Platforms (Riot): CLOSED AT $ 13.8 (+1.84%), -1.88% AT $ 13.54
• Core Scientific (Corz): CLOSED AT $ 14.35 (+1.06%), -1.74% AT $ 14.10
• Cleanspark (CLSK): CLOSED AT $ 9.55 (-0.31%), -1.26% AT $ 9.43
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners etf (WGMI): Closed AT $ 29.67 ( +1.23%), +0.78% AT $ 29.90
• Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed AT $ 26.16 (-4%), Unchanged In Pre-Market

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (Mstr): Closed AT $ 338.84 (-0.94%), -1.84% AT $ 332.60
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): CLOSED AT $ 30.63 (+0.23%), -0.2% AT $ 30.57
• Sharplink Gaming (SBET): CLOSED AT $ 18.46 (-4.2%), -3.14% AT $ 17.88
• UPEXI (UPXI): CLOSED AT $ 8.09 (-1.58%), -5.32% AT $ 7.66
• Mei Pharma (MEIP): CLOSED AT $ 5.2 (+0.78%)

ETF FlowsSPOT BTC ETFS

• Daily Net Flows: $ 178.9 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 54.34 Billion
• Total BTC Holdings ~ 1.29 Million

Spot eth etfs

• Daily Net Flows: $ 39.1 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 13.7 Billion
• Total Eth Holdings ~ 6.6 Million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the dayBVIV. (TradingView/Coindesk)

• Volmex’s BVIV Index, Which Represents Bitcoin’s 30-Day Implied Volatcy, Has Risen Above the 100-Day Simple Moving AVERAGE for the FIRST TIME SINCE April.
• The Uptick Could Be An Early Indicator of An Impening Rise in Wall Street’s So-Called Fear Gauge, The Vix Index.

While You Were Sleeping

• China Says Stronger Ties with India is in Interest of Both Sides (Bloomberg): China’s Foreign Ministry Said Xi’s 2024 MEETING WITH Modi restarted relands Are Resuming Dialogue While Se timesing A Long-Term Strategic Framework.
• Stand up to Trump on Big Tech, Says Eu Antitrust Chief (Financial Times) Services Act and Digital Markets Act.
• Bitcoin Bull Market May Early, Warns Key Indicator, But Flows Continue to Lean Bullish (Coindesk): RSI, A Key Momentum Gauge Trades in Options Markets Suggest Many Investors Are Still Betting on Gains Into Year-End.
• Bitcoin Headed to $ 190k On Institutional Wave, Research Firm Says (Coindesk): Tiger Research Argues Record Liquidity, Etf Accuumulation and Trump’s 401 (K) Order Give Bitcoin Ist. Thought Weak Retail Activity and on -chain Signals Show Risks Remain.
• Iren Posts First Full-Year Profit on ai Cloud Growth, Mining Expansion; Shares Climb. Year-end.
• A Tariff Loophole on Cheap Imports Has Closed. How will it affact shopers? (The New York Times): from Today, Individuals and Businesses in the Us Can No Longer Receive Packages Under $ 800 Tariff-From Abroad, A Change Set To Raise Shopping Costs And

In the Ether