“Currently, in current conditions, any statistics and forecasts for the harvest and cost of grain transportation for the 2025-26 marketing year are not relevant, notes the expert of the logistics market, the advisor to the Presidium of UKAB on railway logistics, the adviser to the chairman of the Committee on the development of transport infrastructure. There are several good reasons to consider before you make any conclusions”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Currently, in current conditions, any statistics and forecasts for the crop and cost of grain transportation for the 2025-26 marketing year are not relevant, notes the expert of the logistics market, the adviser to the Presidium of UKAB on railway logistics, the adviser to the chairman of the Committee on the development Yuri Shchuklin .
There are several good reasons to consider before drawing any conclusions, he notes:
-First, it is incorrect to compare different periods. It is impossible to compare the year when the vegetation began in March, with the year where it started in April, as it directly affects the beginning of the harvesting campaign and the timing of the harvest. It is also unrepresentable to compare the harvest year with the lean, as it is a natural cycle that occurs in Ukraine about once every four years.
Secondly, the dynamics are influenced by numerous factors. It is not one or two, but dozens of factors that make each harvesting and export season unique. The key factor is the global situation: when a lean year in the world and we have a yielding, prices and intensity of transportation will be completely different. The agrarian and logistics market of Ukraine cannot be viewed in isolation from the world situation: under the conditions of the world deficit, the Ukrainian crop is sold more expensive and faster, and in the world surplus – on the contrary. These price and logistics effects cannot be predicted precisely in advance, – Yuri Shchuklin notes. -Third, the situation is influenced by war and economic downturn. It is known that about 20% of the land where agricultural cargoes were formed. In addition, the total fall in Ukraine’s GDP by 30% compared to the pre -war 2021 naturally leads to a decrease in transportation. This is not an anomaly, but a natural consequence: part of the business has stopped working, regulated or not withstanding competition in the current environment.
The expert emphasizes that the grain market is traditionally in the expectation. Agrarians harvest, calculate volumes, evaluate transitional inventories and only then decide to sell. By this point, the audit of activity remains low and the price guidance is blurred. To predict in such conditions means to ignore key factors, he says.
– Finally, it should be understood that in July and August there can be no real dynamics of grain transportation. During this period, farmers harvest and wait for the global balance. Only after state institutions (such as the Ministry of Economy) and large players (for example, the Ukrainian Grain Association – UZO) will calculate the volume and provide their forecasts for gross collection and export, will understand the price of Ukrainian grain in the world market. And only after that will the vision of the dynamics of transportation – and therefore, the ratio of supply and demand for means of power, – says Yuri Shchuklin. -Those of agricultural producers who sell grain up to this point do it not at a market price, but for the need-because of the need for funds, the inability to store crops (as small farmers) or because of the features of continuous business process (as in large companies).
Thus, any predictions made by the end of August are essentially irrelevant. This is a traditional expectation period: first manufacturers harvest, large players and profile institutions count it, then check with global balances, and only then do most manufacturers make a decision to sell. Up to this point, the audit of activity and pricing are in a “suspended” state.
