Ireland’s Export-Led Economy Looks Robust Enough To WitHstand Gigher US Trade Tariffs for Now Now

Scope Expects The General Government Budget to Remain in Surplus, Running This Year at At AUND 2.6% Of Gni AROUND 2.3% ON AVERAGE BETWEEN 2026-30. Notably, Without Excess Corporate Tax Revenues, The General Government Budget Wound Be in deficit by by around 1% to 2% of Gni.

WHILE DEPENCE ON Mnes Remains a Key Economic Vulneracy-Just 10 Companies Pay 57% of All Corporation Taxes and Just Three Account for 40%-Robust Corporate Favourable Tradecytory of Government Debt.

General Government Debt-To-Hni Is Likely to Decline to 63% in 2025 and To Less 50% by 2030 FROM 68% in 2024, with Debt-To-GDP Falling to 30% FROM AROUND 40% Over.Figure 1).

Growing Strategic Reserves to Help Ireland Meet Welfare and Infrastructure Challenges The Government’s Strategic Approach to Windfoch to Windfoll Revenues Strengthatens the Fiscal Outlook Through The Two Sovereign Funds Establissed in 2024 Corporate Tax Receipts, Sovereign Funds Provide a Buffer for Addressing the Pressing Structural Challenges Facing The Economy.

Assuming The Government Transfers AROUND 0.8% of GDP A YEAR to the FUTURE IRELAND FUND THRUGH 2040, The Fund Could Grow to AROUND EUR 100BN, ALLOWING FUTUNMENTS Onlines to Tackle The Health and Welfare Costs Associated with An Ageing Population.

The Government is Also Accuumulating Resources for the Modernization of Infrastructure and To Address Climate Change with Eur 2bn of Annual Flows to the InfrastRACTURE, Climate Annual Flow.

Scope’s Assessment of Ireland’s Favourable Refinance Profile Further Supports The Fiscal Outlook, with Less than 40% of Outstanding Treasury Debt Maturing with years. The National Treasury Management Agency’s Cash Balance of Eur 30bn (AROUND 5% OF GDP) Provides Further Substantial Finance Flexibility.

Suppply-Side Constraints, Public Investment Needs Are Challenges Eliminating Suppply-Side Bottlenecks Remains A Significant Policy Challenge, With The Economy Operation at Capacity While Facing Labor and Skills Shortages.

The Government’s Updated National Development Plan Includes Eur 102.4bn in Capital Investments Between 2026 and 2030, with Overall Investments of Eur 275.4bn by 2035 Labour Market and Lengthy Processes.

Addressing the these Supple-Side Constraints Through Labour-Market Reforms Will Be Cruceal For the Economy To-Ambitious Infrastructure Spending on Housing, Water, Water, Water.

Over Time, Implementation of the National Development Plan Could Enhalth The Growth Model and Support Competititivens, While Mitigating The Economy Economy.

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Thomas Gillet Is A Director in Sovereign and Public Sector Rathings at Scope Rathings. Elena Klare, Analyst in Sovereign Rathings at Scope, Contributed to Draft This Research.