Political scientist Oleg Saakyan: Putin has no special trumps at meeting Trump

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Although the world has some hopes for Donald Trump and Putin’s meeting, there is a threat that the Russian dictator will try to tactically beat the US President, using his weakness – vulnerability to flattery.

Whether Trump can resist Putin on the character of their conversation, why it will be held in Alaska and what their results are waiting for in Russia – these and other issues journalist Briefly about put International expert Oleg Saakyan.

Putin will replace the important questions that he favorably – What gives Putin a meeting on Alaska? Why did he initiate it?

Polytologist Oleg Saakyan Photo: Ukr.radio

-First, he was able to replace the agenda-from a complete ceasefire, as a condition for negotiations, to negotiate a ceasefire, removing the issue of completion of the war and the conditions of its completion from the agenda. Secondly, he at least delayed the strengthening of sanctions from the United States. His third goal is that he again quarreled Europe and the United States. He also paused in his favor in this war. Because now the Russian economy is in very serious condition. And separately he needs this pause to offer a track of relations with the United States on cooperation, without attachment to the completion of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

– What are Putin’s arguments to convince Trump in his favor?

– He is not going to convince Trump that he is right, he simply wants to buy it between Russia and the United States about potential cooperation of hundreds of millions, and maybe billions of dollars. And Trump is good for it.

– At previous personal meetings, Putin managed to fascinate the US president and finish them in his favor. Will he do it now?

– Trump has been fascinated by Putin from the beginning, so it is not a question now, whether he is fascinated again, this is how much he has a wide field for communication with a Russian dictator. And here it is an extremely narrow field for him, because, on the one hand, public opinion in the United States is not in favor of Russia, and on the other – he needs not to lose his face in front of Europe. And there they understand that the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war is a question and their security.

Meeting not for the sake of the result, but for the sake of the process itself – Recently, Trump’s surroundings, thanks to the efforts of Europe and Ukraine, managed to force him to reveal the stiffness of Russia, and he began threatening Moscow’s sanctions. Did he keep this rigidity when communicating with Putin directly?

– In words, this determination will remain, but it depends on how much the impact of public opinion within the US on Trump itself will maintain. If the Americans are on the side of Ukraine, then Trump will be rigid with Putin. But even so, he will try to play with the Russian dictator, because he really wants to get a big deal with Russia.

– Can Putin himself look weaker in these negotiations?

– No, but Putin has no special trumps, for him and so very good result – a meeting with Trump. And all this activation of negotiations for him is not for the sake of a specific result, but for the sake of the process.

– On the other hand, this meeting is similar to the union of Hitler and Mussolini. She was not invited to her: neither Zelensky nor Europe. Is there any conspiracy between them behind the back of Ukraine?

– It cannot be implemented. Putin would be very much liked by this, because he would weaken the Western coalition and weaken Ukraine’s position. But for Trump, such a conspiracy would become geopolitical suicide. Public opinion and position of Western politicians are now on the side of Ukraine, and there will be no agreements on her back.

Top Russian propagandists are already preparing to defeat in negotiations – What are the expectations of this meeting in Russian society? Is it more hope for “thawing” relations with the US and recognizing Russia’s current foreign policy?

-I think that Russians do not expect anything special from it, except that it is a la recognition of Genius Putin. That Trump sits with him at the negotiating table. There will be only a symbolic-propaganda effect with some splashes of “betrayal” that Putin goes to Trump into American territory, not the other way around. You can see how the top Russian propagandists whiten their dictator.

– How is Rospropaganda now insured against possible failure in negotiations with Trump? Are they already preparing Russian society for Putin’s loss?

– The main thesis of Rospropaganda for the Russians – they say, do not pay attention, it is all the brilliant maneuvers of Putin, and it shows strategic trick. And that Russia will not give up anything. The abstracts about compromises cause treacherous motives for the Russians.

– Are they afraid in Russia that the meeting will be perceived as a sign of weakness or willingness to concess from the Kremlin?

– Yes, this meeting itself is a sign of the weakness of Russia. Because it occurs against the background of increased sanction pressure on Moscow through oil. Russia has already lost more than 20 billion from the sale of oil, and it is unknown, whereby they will form the budget for the next year. The Russian railway already sends its employees on free vacations, in Russia catastrophically cuts social packages for citizens. September is planned to revise social expenditures in the budget and strengthen mobilization measures. So in Russia now the situation is quite bad. Therefore, it is clear that Putin went to meet with Trump not from a good life.

Putin wants to show that he is still in the center of world politics – And what signals Putin tries to send not to the West, but, for example, China, Turkey or the countries of the global south through this meeting?

– That he is not in isolation and that he remains a player of top, world level. For this purpose, he now calls a number of leaders of countries who are still lifting the phone. It seems to show that it is not necessary to quarrel with Russia, because Russia is not yet “knocked down” and that Russia is still a future.

– Can Putin arrest on Alaska?

– The United States did not ratify the Statute of the International Criminal Court, so they have no obligations to it. In addition, for Trump himself, Putin is the world leader he sympathizes, so no arrest won’t.

– What to expect from their meeting?

– Nothing significant, only a weak continuation of peace talks.

Source: kp.ua